Higher interest rates will push the US economy into recession this year, according to a survey of economists and academic economists.
The Wall Street Journal reports in a poll that economists estimate the probability of a recession at an average of 61% over the next 12 months. That’s down slightly from the 63% in October’s WSJ poll. But both numbers are historically high outside of actual recessions.
Three-quarters of those surveyed had no hope that the Fed’s interest rate manipulation could bring the economy a “soft landing.” Even as monthly inflation slows (while prices are still more than 13% higher than when the Biden administration took office), economists see inflation falling to 3.1% by the end of the year from 6.5% in December.
The good news from the study is that economists expect the recession to be relatively shallow and short-lived. Still, job cuts will accelerate through the second quarter of this year, the interviewer said. That sentiment has fallen significantly since the October poll of economists.
Housing will be the hardest sector to target, followed by healthcare and personal services in second and third place.
The Journal surveyed 71 economists, although not every economist answered every question. The survey was conducted from 6 to 10 January.
Author: Bruce Herring
Source: Deadline
Mary Crossley is an author at “The Fashion Vibes”. She is a seasoned journalist who is dedicated to delivering the latest news to her readers. With a keen sense of what’s important, Mary covers a wide range of topics, from politics to lifestyle and everything in between.
