Australia would need to close every coal-fired power station and end new petrol and diesel car sales within a decade to meet its climate commitments, according to a new report from research institute Climate Analytics.
The report found renewable energy investment would also need to accelerate, industrial emissions would face tougher limits, and Australia would have to plan for the end of fossil fuel exports.
Climate Analytics released the findings on Monday in a 183-page report titled "A Fossil-Free Australia," which modelled a pathway for the country to keep global warming as close to 1.5 degrees as possible. The study compared emissions under Australia's existing climate policies with a pathway designed to limit the duration of global warming above that threshold.
The report comes less than two weeks after the United Nations warned the world would exceed the Paris Agreement's limit within years and should cut emissions swiftly to limit the overshoot. The Paris Agreement is the international treaty under which nearly every country has pledged to keep global warming well below 2 degrees Celsius, with an aspiration of 1.5 degrees.
Emissions targets for 2050
The report found Australia could cut residual emissions in 2050 by 71 per cent if it took immediate action to phase out fossil fuels, accelerate renewable energy projects and introduce broad reforms.
To get there, policies would need to end coal-fired power generation by 2034, halve oil demand by 2035 and cut domestic gas demand by 90 per cent by 2040, the report found. Renewable energy generation would need to reach 87 per cent nationwide by 2030, rising to 96 per cent by 2035 and 100 per cent by 2050.
What Climate Analytics says
Climate Analytics chief executive Bill Hare said the report could help Australian decision-makers target the right sectors and set an example for the rest of the world.
"We've done the study for Australia as part of a global effort to look at what countries need to do to meet the Paris Agreement goals," he said.
Hare pointed to recent extreme weather as evidence of the urgency.
"We've seen many disasters around the world recently, including the catastrophe in Nepal, and all of these things are driven very much by the acceleration of global warming," he said.
Transport and road freight
While reforming Australia's energy sector would make the biggest difference to greenhouse gas emissions, the report said transport would also require major reform.
New petrol and diesel vehicle sales would need to be phased out by 2035 at the latest, the report found, while planes and ships would need to switch from fossil fuels to sustainable aviation fuel and ammonia by 2045.
Report author Thomas Houlie said additional policies should target heavy road freight, describing diesel-powered trucks as a blind spot for state and federal governments.
"There is no policy to address emissions from road freight," he said.
"Electrification of transport is critical … otherwise it will become the highest-emitting sector within decades," he said.
Industry and exports
Industrial emissions should also be addressed through reforms to the Safeguard Mechanism, Australia's main policy tool for limiting emissions from the country's largest industrial facilities, the report said. Coal and gas exports would need to fall sharply by 2040.
