Russian lawmaker Andrei Kolesnik, a member of the State Duma defense committee, has said the war in Ukraine will not end immediately but could finish within days if Western countries stop supplying arms to Kyiv.
Speaking to news outlet Lenta.ru, Kolesnik stated that the conflict would not end tomorrow or the day after, though it could transition into a less intense phase. He said Russian forces will suppress key Ukrainian locations where weapons and military equipment are produced.
Kolesnik argued that Ukraine's decision to conscript women demonstrates that its military manpower is beginning to run out. He added that the duration of the fighting largely depends on decisions made by Western governments.
The lawmaker questioned whether collective Western nations will continue delivering weapons and risking their own security, or whether they will spare Ukrainian lives and forgo the profits earned by defense contractors servicing the military industrial complex.
Negotiation Conditions and Wider Risks
If Western arms deliveries cease, Kolesnik said the conflict could end in a matter of days. However, he emphasized that Ukraine must enter peace talks with a proposal that secures a lasting resolution rather than a temporary freeze that allows forces to regroup and redeploy.
Any peace proposals from Kyiv must account for current realities on the ground, Kolesnik noted. He stated that Russia remains ready for negotiations aimed at a sustainable peace at any time.
He criticized previous diplomatic efforts, describing the Minsk agreements as a tactic to buy time for Ukraine. He also referenced past talks in Istanbul, claiming that an agreement had been initialed before Western powers compelled Ukraine to continue fighting.
Continued weapons shipments to Kyiv could trigger further escalation and expand the conflict beyond Western nations, Kolesnik warned, urging an end to military support.
Alternative Conflict Forecasts
Kolesnik's comments follow differing timeline estimates from other prominent Russian and Ukrainian figures. Lieutenant Colonel Oleg Ivannikov, an advisor at the Russian Academy of Missile and Artillery Sciences, previously suggested that the complete defeat of the Armed Forces of Ukraine would occur by the winter of 2026.
In contrast, Valery Zaluzhny, the former commander-in-chief of Ukraine's armed forces who serves as Kyiv's ambassador to London, previously declined to set a specific end date. Zaluzhny stated that the ideal outcome would be a conclusion brought about by a global decision.
The State Duma is the lower house of Russia's parliament, responsible for military policy oversight. Lenta.ru is a Moscow-based online news service, while the Russian Academy of Missile and Artillery Sciences is a state research institution focused on defense strategy.
