How a WGA strike could upset cinemas’ release schedule as studios and exhibitions celebrate box office boom – CinemaCon

In a week when distributors and exhibitors gather for their annual Las Vegas gathering, CinemaCon, and celebrate the post-pandemic box office resurgence, the film industry is bracing for a possible WGA strike.

As production slows and deals close, especially since 98% of the WGA West and WGA East agree to a strike if a fair new film/TV deal doesn’t hit the box office before the 1? Gower Analytics projects to generate an estimated $32 billion worldwide (+24% YoY) and $9 billion in the United States (+200%) this year alone.

Just as the majority of exhibitors are getting back on their feet financially after the major 2020-2021 Covid shutdown, studio sources have outlined a worst-case scenario for Deadline should the WGA strike last longer than four months.

Basically, the theatrical release calendar would see several date changes for pictures, starting in the fourth quarter of this year. While the 2024 theatrical release calendar remains more or less intact for the first six months with completed films in the pipeline, things are still set to soften. And in that scenario, studios may have to pull out from Q4 2023. Such an aftermath of a possible strike is not as dramatic as a TV production that will immediately feel another one. Be aware that the longest WGA strike on record was in 1988 (7 March – 7 August) and lasted 153 days, followed by the 1960 strike of 146 days (16 January – 10 June 1960) and the 2007-2008- strike ( 5 ). , 2007 – February 17, 2008) at 100 days.

There’s another problem: since SAG-AFTRA’s contract expires on June 30, this union strike will prevent the actors from releasing their film or television projects (they meet with the AMPTP on June 7).

How does it shake the last tentpoles of summer? Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning – Part One (July 14), Oppenheimerround Barbie (July 21), haunted house (July 28) among others? The good news for shows is that tentpole release dates are valuable launch pads for movie studios, so they’re not inclined to give them up so easily. Therefore, no major title changes are expected this summer. Still, studio and distribution marketing leaders remain cautious. It’s the smaller films that rely on publicity that matter most when SAG-AFTRA strikes. Last weekend, the SAG-AFTRA National Council voted unanimously to adopt a resolution “strongly supporting” the WGA in its ongoing talks with the AMPTP for a new film/television agreement.

The closure of the exhibition due to Covid created a lose-lose situation for both studios and circuits. With most major box office capitals like LA and NY shut down by health officials, studios are constantly pushing their tentpoles, read Black Widow, F9, No Time to Die, Venom: Let There Be Carnage, Minions: Rise of Gru, Jurassic World, Dominion, The Wonders And Creed III still deeper into the 2021-2023 calendar. It was a situation many circles are still feeling as Cineworld and its American sister chain try to emerge from bankruptcy.

Warner Brothers.” basic principle had hoped to open the remaining theaters in August 2020, but the movie’s lackluster run ($58.5 million domestic) proved that LA and NYC are crucial for studios looking to cash in on an expensive picture. As No time to die Pushed back from Thanksgiving 2020 and causing other films to be postponed, Cineworld boss Mooky Greidinger said the country’s No. 2 chain, Regal, closed in response to the lack of tent poles on the calendar. The domestic box office has fallen off a cliff due to exhibition and studio closures that have slowed major titles, falling 81% between 2019 ($11.4 billion) and 2020 ($2.2 billion) with a gradual recovery in the year 2021 ($4.5 billion, +105% ).

But could a strike really affect the theatrical release schedule as much as the pandemic? A WGA strike could last four to six months or longer, according to sources. The schedule could tighten further if the DGA decides to go on a longer strike, that guild’s contract also expires on June 30, and negotiations are set for May 10. Note that DGA only went on strike once, in 1987, when DGA West shut down for 15 minutes and DGA East shut down for three hours and 15 minutes. As the pandemic has forced studios to sell major titles to streaming (e.g. Paramount with Come 2 America and sky dance The war of tomorrow to Amazon Prime, MRCs The love birds to Netflix), it’s conceivable that we could see a reverse trend now that Covid fears among moviegoers have eased that studios in a hit market can take a film and release it for streaming in order to shift the theater schedule to fill any gaps fill.

It’s been reported how streamers have been able to negotiate for several months given their backup product, not to mention it’s an opportunity to reduce overspending, shape their cash flow, and end bad deals. Movie studios can also save millions by halting production for a profitable quarter. However, a delay in the distribution pipeline of features is not good for business either. Not to mention that a production delay could potentially cause another post-production shutdown that resulted from films being postponed during the pandemic. This left a dry bed for the product until late August to October 2022 and early winter this year. In fact, we’re still waiting for movies delayed by the pandemic to hit theaters, which is Warner Bros./DC The Lightning which premieres at CinemaCon on Tuesday night Aquarius and the lost kingdom on December 20.

During the 100-day WGA strike of 2007-2008, several blockbusters stuck to their release dates during that period, with release dates again being a valuable commodity, e.g. B. Will Smith title I am a legend ($77.2 million opening, a record for an original film opening, $256.3 million domestic), Alvin and the Chipmunks ($44.3 million, $217.3 million), National Treasure: Book of Secrets ($44.7 million, $219.9 million) as it sounded in 2008’s JJ Abrams-produced clovereld ($40 million) and the romantic comedy Katherine Heigl27 dresses ($23 million opening from $76.8 million). In 2008, giant tentpoles hit their most important dates, which were Marvel Studios Iron Man (May 2) Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (May 22) and the dark knight (July 18).

The tentpoles planned for 2009 were then hit hard and rushed to begin production on March 1, 2008 for various studios. The 2007-2008 strike caused studios to scrap expensive or undercooked projects. One of the most prolific films to be scrapped was a Warner Bros./DC version directed by George Miller justice league with Adam Brody as The Flash and then fresh cast, Armie Hammer Jr. as Batman and Megan Gale as Wonder Woman. Although Australian tax breaks were an obstacle at the time, Warner wanted to tighten up the script written by Kieran and Michele Mulroney, which prevented the strike. The studio phased out the actors’ options.

One upcoming film production saving itself from a protracted WGA strike is James Gunn. superman: legacy planning an early 2024 launch for a July 11, 2025 theatrical release. This film will serve as the beginning of Gunn and DC co-boss Peter Safran’s Gods and Monsters universe for the comic label. Gunn shared a cover of the script on social media and announced the start of pre-production earlier this week with “costumes, production design and more in use now.” Saffron is expected to take the stage at Warner Bros. on Tuesday. recording CinemaCon’s presentation, while Gunn, who is on a world tour for Disney/Marvel Studios, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3, appear via video.

Another delayed tentpole from the 2007-2008 strike was the Ron Howard-directed Akika Goldsman-David Koepp adapted version by Dan Browns angels and demons; this photo’s publication date has been moved from Christmas 2008 to May 15, 2009. That of Michael Mann Edwin A Salt with Tom Cruise from a screenplay by Kurt Wimmer became the title of the spy action Salt starring Angelina Jolie and directed by Phillip Noyce. The film finally surfaced in July 2010. Both were huge hits for Sony, taking US$486 million and US$293 million worldwide, respectively.

Hare breeds waste, however, and when studios rush production because of the strike, it leads to bad apples. This was the case due to the 2007-2008 strike for the Rob Marshall musical Nine ($54 million WW, $80 million cost) and the Will Ferrell remake of the 1970s TV series land of the lost ($68.8M WW, $100M cost), both were critical and financial duds. While there was no strike in 2001, the anticipation of a strike at the studios led to a number of undercooked titles including The truth about Charlie, Reign of Fire And dark blue

“We haven’t had discussions about the labor issue at our guild meetings,” outgoing National Association of Theater Owners president and CEO John Fithian told Deadline in a recent exit interview, looking at the partners, but exposed them.

“We are hopeful and optimistic that quick solutions will be found that are fair to all parties,” added Fithian.

While screenwriters spelled out their wishes in the WGA’s requirements template, many screenwriters believe the latest round of talks boils down to the essentials for streaming and TV writers. However, after a severe pandemic, the recovered theater business could be hit again.

exclaimed an excited sales manager, “The hope is that cooler heads will prevail.”

Jill Goldsmith contributed to this report