“Everything Everywhere” is unbeatable, but so is “Brokeback Mountain”.

Where does this doubt come from? Everything everywhere at once and the best picture prospects? (Almost) everyone says it’s the winner, far and away. The picture is unbeatable. The Directors Guild, Producers Guild and Screen Actors Guild have already awarded it, and the Writers Guild will likely do the same tonight. The Spirit Awards made it yesterday. Thumbs up at the Critics Choice Awards. As pointed out by Deadline’s Pete Hammond, all six Los Angeles Times “Buzzmeter” forecasters Everything everywhere to victory.

But there’s still that eerie feeling of unease. Perhaps, as Hammond points out, the shadow of light will be cast over Everything‘s BAFTA loss for No news from the western frontplus the sure knowledge that some senior members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences are not in love with the wildly eccentric film, plus memories of recent disasters that KODA to empty power of the dog And Green Book Loss Rome.

As Pete says, there aren’t certain things. And we know the academy loves an underdog, or as Oscar campaigners like to put it, “the little engine that can.” The most Oscar-nominated film has only happened twice in the past decade bird man (Tape for nominations with The big hotel in Budapest) And The shape of the water– went on to win Best Picture.

Therefore EverythingThe 11 nominations of , the most for a film this year, can be read as a counter-indicator. With too many nominations, there are too many opportunities to take care of one film and leave the Best Picture vote for something else.

But more frightening than all this, I think, is the memory of Brokeback Mountainthe disruptive gay western that dominated in 2006 and lost to the field crashing down.

With eight nominations, including three for acting and one directing nomination for Ang Lee, broke back led the field that year. I remember having lunch with the film’s co-producer and distributor, James Schamus, at New York’s Park Bistro on nomination day, January 31st. The energy was overwhelming. Well-wishers rush in from the street to congratulate. But I couldn’t shake the unfortunate feeling that it was actually the pinnacle.

Naturally, the awards poured in for weeks. broke back was a winner at BAFTA, Critics Choice, Spirit Awards, Globes, DGA, PGA and WGA. The only notable failure was at SAG – and of course at the Academy.

Until today backlashLosing Oscar has been called one of the biggest mistakes in Oscar history, a mortal sin. There were allegations of homophobia and even a staged “revote” ostensibly to show that the academy’s voters felt sorry for the buyer and, if reconsidered, would not have awarded the prize. crashing down.

Whatever. I don’t know that. But broke back is still in the forecasting business. As Pete Hammond points out, nothing is certain.