Former Dutch ambassador Robert Serry told Ukrinform that Ukraine now holds strategic trump cards in its war against Russia, turning the conflict into a stalemate.
Serry explained that Ukrainian technological advancements in drone warfare have allowed Kyiv to bolster European security, even as Russia launches heavy ballistic missile strikes against civilian targets and infrastructure.
Serry served as the first ambassador of the Netherlands to Ukraine from 1992 to 1996, following the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two nations after the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Ukrinform is Ukraine's national news agency, headquartered in Kyiv.
Shift in military capabilities
The former diplomat recalled that one year ago, United States President Donald Trump told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy that Ukraine possessed no trump cards. Serry argued that the situation has since transformed dramatically, calling it one of the largest ironies of the war initiated by Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Four years ago, international observers largely doubted Ukraine could withstand a full-scale Russian invasion. At the time, Ukraine was perceived as a vulnerable nation constantly requesting emergency foreign assistance and expedited European Union membership.
Serry noted that Western military assistance enabled Ukraine to pioneer a new era of warfare, emerging as a global leader in aerial, naval, and land-based drone technology. Ukrainian systems are currently deployed to protect American military installations in Saudi Arabia against Iranian drone attacks.
Stalemate and air attacks
Despite these strategic successes, Serry warned that he does not view the conflict with broad optimism as Ukraine enters its fifth year of war. During a visit to Kyiv in July, the former ambassador observed a dramatic deterioration in the security environment across the capital.
He attributed the escalation partly to Ukraine's effective long-range strikes against energy infrastructure, supply routes, and logistics nodes inside Russian territory. In response, Putin has directed widespread ballistic missile bombardments against civilian populations and infrastructure across Ukrainian cities.
Serry characterized the current military situation as a mutually hurting stalemate, a concept in conflict resolution theory where neither side can secure a decisive victory through force and both suffer unsustainable losses. He noted that while Ukraine is unlikely to recover all occupied territory, Russia has failed to achieve its initial war aims of capturing Kyiv or securing the entire Donbas region.
Diplomatic options and missile shortages
Serry suggested that a third party must intervene to end the conflict, identifying Trump as potentially the only international leader with sufficient leverage over Moscow. He expressed hope that the White House might initiate renewed peace negotiations before the end of the year, utilizing an established 20-point peace plan backed by Europe, Ukraine, and the United States, provided Washington pressures Moscow rather than demanding territorial concessions from Kyiv.
However, Serry expressed concern over Trump's military actions in Iran, which he argued have diverted critical Patriot missile interceptors away from Ukraine. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy recently disclosed that European allies have delivered only about a third of the promised Patriot interceptors and air defense systems needed to counter Russian ballistic missiles.
Serry added that constructing domestic production facilities for air defense interceptors inside Ukraine would require years, offering no immediate relief. He warned that Western allies must address this shortfall as Ukraine faces the prospect of a fifth winter of full-scale war.
Russian responses to Western military aid
In related developments reported by news agency UNIAN, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova demanded immediate explanations from Washington and Ankara regarding planned large-scale weapons shipments to Ukraine through Turkey. Zakharova stated that the transfers remain highly controversial and warned that continued shipments would inflict severe damage on Russia's diplomatic relations with the United States and Turkey.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov also requested clarification from the United States concerning allegations that Washington provided intelligence to assist Ukrainian strikes inside Russia. Lavrov warned that Russian forces will intensify attacks against all Western military shipments entering Ukrainian territory.
