Syria announced on Sunday that Russia's Hmeimim air base and its naval base at Tartus will no longer be under Moscow's exclusive control, and will instead become centers for "joint exercises," according to The Times. The two facilities were Russia's only official military bases outside the former Soviet Union.
The change follows the 2024 overthrow of Bashar al-Assad, a key Kremlin ally, by rebel forces. Ahmed al-Sharaa, a commander of the Islamist-led rebel movement, replaced him as Syria's president.
Russia's military had backed Assad for nine years, killing thousands of Syrian rebels and civilians, but President Vladimir Putin ordered his forces not to intervene when rebels stormed Damascus, The Times reported.
Syria described the bases agreement as a "reorganization of the Russian presence" that would open a "new stage" in Syrian-Russian relations. Damascus said the deal was agreed with Moscow and would protect mutual interests, but noted that civilian facilities at both bases would be handed over to the Syrian government.
Experts Weigh Russia's Prospects
Anna Borshchevskaya, an expert on Russian foreign policy and the Middle East, said Hanna Notte told The Times the chances Russia could still use the Syrian bases for military purposes in future are shrinking, though not zero. Notte said Russia is being very cautious about whether Sharaa can actually hold power and stabilize Syria, and is likely taking a wait-and-see approach over the next five to ten years.
Russia had used its Syrian bases to move supplies and fighters for the Africa Corps, the Kremlin-controlled successor to the Wagner mercenary group, into Libya, Mali, the Central African Republic and elsewhere on the continent.
Under the new deal, Moscow keeps limited refueling rights for military aircraft at Hmeimim, but Nikita Smagin, an expert on Iran and Russian policy in the Middle East, said Syria's new authorities are gradually pushing Russia out and eventually want to be rid of the Russian presence altogether, even if not immediately. He said Syrian authorities are acting pragmatically, and skillfully, to avoid damaging relations with Russia during the unstable transition period.
Criticism From Hardliners
The Kremlin will likely try to present the air base agreement positively, but it has drawn criticism from Russian hardliners. Igor Yeliseyev, a former lawyer for the Russian government-funded Wagner company, wrote that Russia spent enormous resources and the lives of its officers, soldiers and Wagner fighters to gain a foothold in the region, and is now asking permission from "bearded fighters" and their Turkish handlers to remain on its own bases.
Other Allies Slipping Away
Iran's government, which supplied military support for Russia's invasion of Ukraine, has so far withstood a US-Israeli bombing campaign. But the Kremlin could not prevent the fall of other major allies. The Times reported Russia was powerless to stop US special forces from detaining Venezuela's pro-Moscow leader, Nicolas Maduro. Hungary's Viktor Orban, whose government was seen as a Kremlin "Trojan horse" in the European Union, lost his election. Russia has also lost influence in the South Caucasus, where Armenia and Azerbaijan, both former Soviet republics, are drifting from Moscow's orbit.
Serbia Hosts Zelensky
Serbia, one of the few European countries that has not sanctioned Moscow over the invasion, hosted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky last week on his first visit since the 2022 invasion began. A Ukrainian official described the talks between Zelensky and Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic as a "slap in the face" for Putin and part of an effort to pull Serbia away from the Kremlin.
In response to the visit, authorities in Pristina, capital of the partially recognized state of Kosovo, removed Ukrainian flags that had flown there since the start of the full-scale invasion, Ukrinform reported earlier. Mayor Perparim Rama wrote on Facebook that Kosovo must be respected, and when it is not, "the capital Pristina reacts," while adding that Kosovo's sympathy and solidarity would always remain with peoples facing war.
The Swiss outlet NZZ said Belgrade's decision to host Moscow's biggest opponent broke a political taboo. Vucic made clear Serbia would maintain its Russia policy and not join sanctions for now, but stressed potential cooperation with Ukraine, with NZZ reporting Vucic's main aim was to show willingness for dialogue with the West and to discuss EU integration with Zelensky.
Kazakhstan's Rebuke and North Korean Troops
Zelensky's Belgrade trip came after Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev told Putin to his face that Russia should end the fighting in Ukraine, saying it is a pity that young people are dying, during talks in the Siberian city of Omsk. The Times said Putin, who repeatedly mispronounced Tokayev's name during the talks, appeared embarrassed by the appeal.
Putin has turned to North Korea for help with the war and may lean on Pyongyang further. Zelensky said on social media over the weekend that a decision has been made to deploy 30,000 to 50,000 North Koreans on Russian territory, and that they are studying the war.
Notte said that while the West may welcome Russia's weakening influence, it will likely make Putin more determined to achieve his goals in Ukraine. She said that having thrown all its resources into the war, subordinated other foreign policy priorities to it, and even accepted losing influence elsewhere in the world, Russia now needs to emerge from Ukraine a winner, and that greater pressure on Russia elsewhere is likely to harden its position on Ukraine and could even increase its readiness to escalate the conflict.
