The war between Russia and Ukraine is increasingly becoming an air war after four and a half years of full-scale conflict, according to the Financial Times editorial board. The paper said the widespread presence of drones along the front line has made ground maneuvers nearly impossible, leaving the land war static even as it remains brutal.
The FT recalled that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told the paper last month in an interview that the battle in the skies would determine the outcome of the war. The editorial argued that Ukraine's allies must urgently do more to protect the country from ballistic missiles, which it called Ukraine's biggest threat.
The paper said the most notable development this year has been the effectiveness of Ukraine's medium and long range strike operations. Ukraine's Defense Forces have struck Russian military facilities in Crimea and logistics routes linking the peninsula to mainland Russia, making it harder for Moscow to defend and supply the territory.
Strikes on Russian industry
Kyiv has also used increasingly accurate long-range drones and some missiles to hit Russian defense industry sites, oil refineries and depots, according to the FT. The paper said this undermines Russia's war effort and lets ordinary Russians feel the cost of President Vladimir Putin's war. The editorial said Ukraine, with Western allies, should now use this advantage to the fullest to force Putin to the negotiating table.
Recent weeks, however, have exposed Ukraine's own vulnerability to Russian ballistic attacks, partly because allies have not done enough to help with air defense, the paper said. It reported that Russia increased ballistic missile production in 2024 and 2025 by exploiting gaps in Western sanctions to buy components. Military analysts and Ukrainian intelligence officials estimate Russia can produce about 70 missiles a month, and the paper said Russia fired 198 missiles at Ukrainian targets last month alone.
Patriot interceptor shortage
The American Patriot system remains the only reliable defense for Kyiv against ballistic missiles, but its interceptor stock is nearly exhausted, as shown by the accuracy of recent Russian strikes, the FT said. It stated that Moscow is striking Ukraine's defense industry sites, transport hubs and energy and water infrastructure almost unopposed.
The war with Iran has significantly depleted interceptor stocks held by the United States and its Gulf allies, and recent US efforts to expand production will not pay off for years, according to the paper. It said this makes it more important for European partners with significant stockpiles, such as Spain and Greece, to hand over a larger share to Ukraine.
Licensing production in Ukraine
The FT said it is also important for the United States to confirm its plan to license Patriot interceptor production directly in Ukraine. It said such a deal would expand global Patriot manufacturing capacity, which would benefit the US as well, though Ukraine may need several years to negotiate the technology transfer and build a certified supply chain, so it is not a short-term fix.
The paper said the deal itself could encourage allies to hand over valuable stockpiles if they know supplies will soon be replenished. It said France and Italy should speed up deliveries of their SAMP/T NG systems, a newer equivalent of Patriot, and keep expanding interceptor production lines. The FT said that if these countries had invested earlier in production capacity to help Ukraine, neither Kyiv nor Europe would be as dependent on American technology.
In the long term, the paper said Ukraine and its allies should bring in defense startups to mass produce low-cost interceptors. It added that allies should also provide the means and intelligence to destroy Russian ballistic missile production sites and launch pads, concluding that the scale of Russian missile production and the interceptor shortage mean Ukrainian forces must target not just the arrow but the archer.
