Covid cases drop again as Sir Patrick Vallance says latest wave peaks

Daily Covid cases in the UK have dropped again today, and hospital admissions now appear to be slowing, as Sir Patrick Vallance says the latest wave of infections has reached its peak.

Another 87,188 infections were confirmed in the last 24 hours, down 15% from Wednesday’s figure, according to government dashboard data.

After the spike in early March due to the release of Freedom Day restrictions and the emergence of a more contagious version of Omicron, daily infections have dwindled every week since Friday.

“The infection rate is starting to reverse, so we could be very close or peak and soon start to drop,” Sir Patrick, the government’s chief science adviser, told MPs today.

In another promising sign, the recent increase in admissions to Covid hospitals appears to be slowing. As of the latest date, March 26, another 2,075 people have been hospitalized with the virus, just 3% more than the previous week.

Daily admissions are now about half the second peak in January 2021, but milder strains of Omicron, better NHS testing and broader immunity mean roughly half of Covid patients are no longer primary as the virus has been treated.

The number of Covid deaths increased only marginally last month despite the rapid increase in cases, with 213 more recorded today, an increase of about 10% in a week. On average, there are 153 Covid deaths per day.

Speaking to MPs for the House of Commons Science and Technology Committee, Sir Patrick said hospitalizations and deaths could increase by several weeks due to the delay between infection and serious illness.

He also suggested that authorities are preparing a quarantine guideline for future pandemics and that severe restrictions could play a role in future outbreaks.

“The infection rate is starting to reverse, so we could be very close or peak and soon start to drop,” Sir Patrick, the government’s chief science adviser, told MPs today.

Sir Patrick said: “I think it will be incredibly important now to look internationally and nationally to try and analyze which components of the constraints are most important.

“The world should learn from this, so there is an advice guide for the future, and also to take into account the different characteristics of viruses.”

Earlier, a member of No10’s Covid poke unit hinted that despite the increase in cases and hospital rates, Brits are no longer changing their behavior because they are less afraid.

Professor Ann John, co-chairman of SAGE’s behavioral subgroup, told lawmakers that infections are more mingling with each other than they did when they were at the same level as the Omicron increase in December.

He admitted that the Spi-B group had advised the government how to use fear to change people’s behavior at the start of the pandemic, but said the scare tactics were soon abandoned.

Meanwhile, Sir Patrick warned that the reduction in testing would lead to a “reduction in precautionary behavior” that could increase transmission of the virus.

Free universal testing will end in the UK on Friday, with only NHS staff, nursing home staff and vulnerable patients eligible for state-funded lateral streams from 1 April.

More than 300,000 people in the UK have signed a petition to set themselves free after that date, describing the decision as “learning to die with Covid” rather than “learning to live with Covid”.

Signatories include school staff, immunocompromised individuals, and parents.

It came when a former top government science adviser warned that ministers were “taking no action” to prepare for the next pandemic.

Sir John Bell of Oxford University, who was Boris Johnson’s Czar, praised the scientists’ efforts over the past two years, but was highly critical of his former employers.

He said the government’s preparation for the pandemic and public health capacity was “weak” and as a result the first six months of the UK’s response to Covid were “pretty poor”.

Professor Sir John said that although he spent “two years in the trenches” updating systems, “no action has been taken” to “cure it next time” a new virus outbreak.

The lack of preparedness meant that the UK was hit with exorbitant tariffs for protective gear, lacking adequate testing capacity during the first wave and delaying the implementation of Covid restrictions in March 2020.

Speaking at a medical conference today, Sir John said ministers still do not know how restrictions such as fencing and the use of masks work.

The Canadian scientist also said it was “a problem” to get politicians to understand the science behind the crisis and criticized the NHS for its poor contribution to testing.

It comes after ministers announced on Tuesday that free lateral flow testing for all staff in England except NHS staff, nursing home staff and vulnerable patients will be phased out from Friday.

The general public will be told that they do not need to be tested, even if they are symptomatic, although they are advised to isolate themselves until they feel better.

Rapid testing for Covid will be drastically reduced on April 1 as part of the final phase of the government’s “living with Covid” strategy.

Asymptomatic testing will only be free for NHS frontline staff, social care and hospice staff during “high prevalence periods”.

Sidestreams are also funded for patients in hospital who have Covid-like symptoms or who may benefit from antivirals because they have an underlying health condition.

People in “high-risk environments”, including prison guards or staff in homeless shelters, will also be able to benefit from free testing if they are symptomatic.

However, routine testing for nursing home and nursing home residents no longer continues and is only performed when a resident is out-of-bounds or hospitalized.

And visitors to hospitals and social care institutions “no longer have to take the test” on arrival.