Extreme heat caused by climate change could triple deaths from cardiovascular disease within 50 years, a new study warns.
In a scenario where minimal efforts are made to reduce emissions, heat-related cardiovascular deaths — including from strokes and heart attacks — could increase by up to 233 percent over the next 13 to 47 years, scientists predict.
Currently, one person in the United States dies every 33 seconds from cardiovascular disease, or disease of the heart or blood vessels.
The research team behind the study, published in the American Heart Association’s journal Circulation, warned that deaths would be more common in older and black populations.
The lead author of the study, Dr. Sameed Khatana, an assistant professor of medicine at the University of Pennsylvania and a cardiologist at the Philadelphia Veterans Affairs Medical Center, said his research showed that climate will play a growing role in our lives as the climate crisis continues.
Researchers predicting cardiovascular disease death rates from rising temperatures warn they could more than double in the United States.
The researchers recommend that more aggressive measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions could reduce the number of deaths from extreme heat.
Between 2008 and 2019, extreme heat led to 1,651 additional deaths from cardiovascular disease each summer in the United States.
How much – and how fast – greenhouse gas emissions increase in the coming decades will have profound effects on extreme heat and human health.
The study, conducted by researchers at the University of Pennsylvania, previously examined data by county in the US to show the link between an increased number of days of extreme heat and an increase in cardiovascular deaths between 2008 and 2017.
This earlier data provided a benchmark for analysis in the new study, which used models of future greenhouse gas emissions and the future socioeconomic and demographic makeup of the US population to predict potential impacts between 2036 and 2065.
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They estimated the excess number of cardiovascular deaths due to extreme heat by comparing the predicted number of deaths for each province when no extreme heat occurred with the number of excess deaths when the expected number of hot days occurred.
The analysis found that even if current proposed reductions in emissions were fully implemented and met, extreme heat-related cardiovascular deaths would be 162 percent higher by mid-century compared to the 2008-2019 base year.
Worse, if reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are not rigorously implemented, the number of cardiovascular deaths caused by extreme heat is expected to increase by 233 percent in the coming decades.
Depending on how aggressively environmentally friendly measures are implemented, adults aged 65 and older are expected to experience a 2.9 to 3.5 times greater increase in cardiovascular deaths from extreme heat than those aged 20 to 64.
Non-Hispanic black adults are also expected to experience a 3.8- to 4.6-fold increase in cardiovascular deaths from extreme heat compared to non-Hispanic white adults, depending on how stringent green policies are implemented and to apply.
The expected increase in deaths from extreme heat did not differ significantly between adults of other racial or ethnic groups or between sexes.
The lead author of the study, Dr. Sameed Khatana, an assistant professor of medicine at the University of Pennsylvania and a cardiologist at the Philadelphia Veterans Affairs Medical Center, said his research showed that climate will play a growing role in our lives as the climate crisis continues. .
“Climate change and its many manifestations will play an increasingly important role in the health of communities around the world in the coming decades,” explains Dr. Khatana.
“Climate change is also a health equity issue because it will disproportionately affect certain individuals and populations and may exacerbate existing health disparities in the United States.”
“The magnitude of the percentage increase was surprising.”
“This increase not only explains the known association between cardiovascular mortality and extreme heat, but is also influenced by the aging of the population and the proportional increase in the number of people of other races and/or ethnicities in the United States.”
Dr. Khatana continued: “Previous studies suggest that black residents may have less access to air conditioning; less tree cover; and a greater degree of the “urban heat island effect”: built-up areas experience greater temperature increases than surrounding, less developed areas.
“Living conditions may also play a role in the social isolation experienced by some older adults, which has previously been linked to an increased risk of death from extreme heat.”
The study’s predictions also raise questions about whether infrastructure interventions, such as increasing the number of trees in certain neighborhoods, could reduce the number of people affected by extreme heat in the US – although some European studies suggest that can prove that it is true.
As a baseline, the researchers used national data from 2008 to 2019 for deaths in the summer months with a primary cause of cardiovascular disease (including heart attack and stroke), as well as related data such as age, sex, race and gender. Ethnicity of each deceased and the number of extreme heat days (days with a maximum heat index of 90°F – 32.22°C – or more) in the month of death.
The heat index takes into account both heat and humidity as it reflects how the human body is exposed to high temperatures, with high humidity affecting the body’s ability to lose heat through sweat.
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Crystal Leahy is an author and health journalist who writes for The Fashion Vibes. With a background in health and wellness, Crystal has a passion for helping people live their best lives through healthy habits and lifestyles.
