Watch For the Curve in this year’s film awards season

The film award seasons, most of them, follow a winding path. It starts in one location (the Telluride festival), then swings to end in another location (the Oscars at the Dolby Theater, unless the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences exercises its early termination option at that location in 2024 ).

Meanwhile, competitors roll down the lanes like bowling balls. They start on the side, lean into the pocket and fail most of the time. With all these twists and turns, early predictions are obviously a tricky business, but you can often see where the field will inevitably move in the future.

For example, in the mid-2000s, when most Oscar voters lived in and around Los Angeles, a clear mid-season tilt from east to west could be seen. New York sophisticates – critics, media, a clandestine group of spectators and independent bosses – rallied around one of the top favorites as Aviator In 2004 or mountain hump in 2005. Then Los Angeles populists – stressed voters, studio salespeople, the trade press – helped to crown the real winners. million dollar baby girl and based in Los Angeles an accident in those particular years.

The sweeping changes in Academy membership have changed the curve. But you might still spot a predictable turnaround in recent awards seasons. Three weeks before the last Oscars ceremony, one of the uncompromising and uncompromising political supporters the power of the dog He asked me personally: “People will drop everything.” Green book This year? ”That is to say, the voters will take away a sophisticated favorite. a dog More informal, for those with a good heart. TAILJust as they were launched Rome For what Green book in 2019?

I had to answer: “Yes, TAIL winning. “The old East-West geographic slant has become meaningless. But the polite and subtly populist turn has remained intact, fueled by a leftover anti-Netflix bias. You can bet on the common sentiment. almost every time (swing, a parasite Y bird man).

That said, can we see a new twist in this year’s awards season? I think we can.

While we don’t know exactly which movies will come out where and when, we can be sure the season will start in a rough and bumpy place. The fight against abortion, the debate on weapons and the mid-term legislative elections practically guarantee this. The directors and their fans will arrive at the first round of the festival – Telluride, Toronto, New York – ready to talk about the problems and films they face. I like the images She said of universal e women talk by United Artists (on sexual assault); As far as by United Artists (on Emmett Till’s lynching); Y call jane Attractions along the way should provide plenty of projections and panels.

Such a rate reversal, if any, may not occur until after election day on November 8 (recent experience shows that tensions only escalate when ratings and disputes continue) and likely not before the Golden Globes which they still have a date. Given the Globes feud over racial inclusion and other issues, the next show will likely be the last leg of a two-year apology tour.

But once the scolding, regret, resentment and revenge are over, there will be a month or two to move on to softer films.empire of light? I want to dance with someone? I don’t really know which one, until the Oscars show on March 12th.

After Will Smith’s coup, the ceremony itself becomes a kinder and kinder place. And Oscar voters are likely to be moving away from tough topics and hard-hitting stories now towards something softer, warmer, and possibly unexpected.