The United States and its allies in NATO, the Western military alliance, would face severe strain if Russia and China launched simultaneous wars in Eastern Europe and Taiwan, analyst Reuben F. Johnson reported in defense publication 19fortyfive.
Under the scenario detailed by Johnson, Moscow could attack a NATO member state in Eastern Europe while Beijing begins a military operation against Taiwan. That would force Washington to conduct combat operations on two fronts at once, or three fronts if hostilities in the Middle East continue.
Coordinated actions by Moscow and Beijing were considered unlikely until recently. However, United States Air Force General Alexus Grynkewich, commander of NATO Joint Forces in Europe, has warned over the past year that Western forces must prepare for a simultaneous war against two major powers, urging European allies to join active planning.
Despite those warnings, Johnson noted an obvious lack of readiness within Western military circles even to discuss such a two-front scenario.
Deficits in Western war games
Concerns over multi-front capacity trace back years. Retired United States Navy Admiral Mark Montgomery took part about 15 years ago in a military war game that simulated a simultaneous war between the United States, Russia, and China.
Montgomery described the outcome of that simulation as having not gone very well. The war game revealed that American weapons stockpiles and defense manufacturing capacity could not sustain multiple large-scale conflicts over an extended period. Allies in Europe and elsewhere also lacked the resources to fill the gap.
Montgomery stated that the situation has since worsened across every indicator, with no areas showing improvement.
Ammunition shortages and Middle East pressure
The war in Ukraine has highlighted specific munitions facing the most acute stockpile and production constraints. Increasing manufacturing output to required levels could take years, though Johnson cautioned against blaming the deficit solely on military aid delivered to Kyiv.
An analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based defense think tank, showed that only about one-quarter of the weapon types provided by the United States to Ukraine are in short supply. Critical shortages include MSE interceptor missiles for Patriot air defense systems, Stinger anti-aircraft missiles, ATACMS artillery rockets, and HARM and AARGM anti-radiation missiles used to target radar installations.
The intensity of combat in the Middle East involving Iran has placed an even greater strain on American ammunition reserves than the conflict in Ukraine. United States air defense missile stockpiles may have declined by roughly two-thirds since February.
NATO planning gaps and Baltic risks
Journalist Simon Shuster, cited in the report, said that if Russia and China act in unison while the United States disputes strategy with its allies, Western prospects in a two-front war look grim. Shuster noted that the victorious side in major conflicts is generally the one that maintains a unified purpose over time.
Ukrainian news agency UNIAN reported that recent NATO war games indicated the United States would likely focus its military resources entirely on China if simultaneous attacks occurred in Europe and East Asia. That posture would leave European nations to face Russian forces without direct American ground reinforcement, while NATO currently lacks a completed response plan for such a contingency.
British military expert Hamish de Bretton-Gordon warned that Russian President Vladimir Putin could still risk direct confrontation with NATO despite heavy Russian troop commitments in Ukraine. Political survival pressures and military setbacks in Syria and the Black Sea could prompt the Kremlin into aggressive moves, including a limited invasion of the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.
