The dessert recipe is under threat. This was reported by The Telegraph with reference to experts in the gastroindustry. According to the publication, the almond harvest in 2025 is expected to be abnormally low. This is due to drought in California, where 80% of the world’s almond supply is grown. The fact that the United States is considered the main supplier of almonds to other countries cannot be ignored.
The USDA, of course, reassures confectionery producers by claiming that harvest levels will be 10% higher than last year. But this does not help stop the panic in the international supply market. Restaurant operators, businessmen and large retailers are sounding the alarm in anticipation of rising product prices. According to them, chefs will have to give up frangipane, a hazelnut spread with almond flakes and almonds. Marzipan manufacturers are also expected to experience problems.
The fact is that the decrease in the supply of almonds will force manufacturers to look for a product to replace almonds in desserts. And if you put alternative sweets on the shelves, you should get the ideal taste – no worse than the original taste of almonds.
The Fashion Vibes decided to examine the situation in detail. For help, we turned to industry experts who explained how the decline in the almond harvest will affect prices and supply, as well as dessert recipes and gastronomy in general.
How will the situation affect prices and supply?
Business consultant Irina Rabetskaya decided to speak directly, without exaggerating the truth. According to him, poor harvest will lead to shortage of almonds and high prices, which will negatively affect buyers.
“In gastronomy, almonds form the basis of many dishes. If the harvest declines, there will be a need to find an alternative, especially other varieties of nuts. The popular almond croissant uses mainly almond crumbs and cream. If there is a shortage of almonds, confectioners can replace them with more affordable options. In general, gastronomy is adapting, for example, as with coffee or avocado. But products with almonds are more suitable for buyers they will become expensive or less likely to appear on the tables,” explained Irina Rabetskaya.
You must understand that almonds will not disappear completely, they may just be less available for a while.
It is also possible that there will be problems with supply. For example, there will be a shortage in hypermarkets; almonds will be supplied in smaller quantities and prices will increase by 20-50%. Restaurants, especially those serving French or Mediterranean food, may reduce menus or increase prices of almond-based dishes. For stores, this means pressure on stocks and the need to buy more expensively; This will be reflected in the price tags for customers.
The business consultant concluded: “If dessert prices rise, restaurants risk losing customers. Ultimately, consumers will see their favorite products move into the premium category. The economic impact can be seen in food inflation, especially in the desserts segment. In the long run, farmers can increase production in other regions and the market will adjust.”
Pesi’s manager Alexander Shpomer expressed the opposite opinion. He is confident that there will be no shortages in the near future and supplies will continue in the same quantity, but from other countries (not the USA).
“This will not affect the supply in any way, other than price conditions. The process is based on a wide range of suppliers (mostly from Central Asia) and the maintenance of a fairly large stock. Therefore, the market, especially in Moscow, which is a large metropolis, is sufficiently flooded with almonds. There is no hesitation yet: since there is a large stock, there are no problems. Possible changes are expected later: when the reserves are exhausted, the amount of almonds will increase.” We are approaching the end of the year,” said Alexander Shpomer.
What about almond desserts?
It turns out that it is difficult to imagine ordinary almond desserts without almonds. Pastry chef Zina Ovshtein identified two essential roles of this nut in desserts: structure (almond flour for pasta, frangipane or biscuits) and recognizable aroma with a slight bitterness.
“When raw materials are scarce and expensive, restaurants and manufacturers begin to save money: they reduce the amount of whole nuts and sauces, replace part of the flour and use pastes, emulsions or extracts for flavor. There are fewer problems with the aroma; it can be recreated, but with the texture everything is more complicated: the same pasta without almonds will no longer be the same,” shared Zina Ovshtein.
Abnormally low almond harvests are already causing problems for confectioners
But not everything is so critical. Almonds can be replaced with other nuts without losing the quality and taste of the product. Hazelnuts, cashews, walnuts and sometimes sunflower seeds are often used as “doubles”. Extracts are added that perfectly convey the almond note. As a result, the taste is preserved, but new shades appear – this leaves room for imagination and culinary experiments. It turns out that a similar story has already happened in vanilla, and it is only beneficial.
“A few years ago, a hurricane in Madagascar ruined the harvest, the prices of fava beans increased by 10 times, and even in France many confectionery houses completely excluded natural vanilla desserts from the menu, leaving them only in the luxury segment. The mass market turned to extracts and vanillins, and many chefs began to play with alternatives – from tonka beans to cardamom. As a result, the crisis led to the emergence of new sweets, fashionable tastes and the usual “The classics have changed,” said Zina Ovshtein, suggesting that almonds will become more expensive and natural almond flour will move to the premium segment.
A new wave of solutions awaits us, from hybrid nut blends to bold aromatic experiments
On the contrary, pastry chef Marina Romanova is sure that no major problems are expected in the recipes and taste. He explained that almonds act as a structure-forming ingredient with a slightly nutty flavor rather than a strong flavor accent. “If a pronounced almond profile is required, the taste is preserved through concentrates and essences, as well as flavoring the cream with almonds: a little almond is needed, but the necessary taste properties remain,” shared Marina Romanova.
Sabina Ibragimova, pastry chef of Hands bistro and Hands Asian, asks you not to panic in advance. According to him, the world of gastronomy was already faced with a similar problem, but everything went well: “I can say that in this case there is no need to “draw an owl over the world.” When the price of chocolate rose sharply, confectioners began to look for analogues: they either removed products containing cocoa products from the assortment, or, risking loss of quality, replaced them with cheaper options. The story of almonds is similar. One of the “cheat” tips is to use tonka bean flavoring. “This material is expensive but economical and its aroma has almond-like notes.”
What are you waiting for anyway?
After listening to all our experts, we concluded that it is too early to sound the alarm. No one will be left without almond croissants and cake. Perhaps the prices of your favorite sweets will increase in 2026, which will create some difficulties for buyers, but over time the Russian market will adapt to this and the situation will normalize.
Restaurants and confectioners will also find a solution to the problem by replacing almonds with a quality alternative. The recipe of the desserts will change, but we hope the taste will not change. This will allow you to maintain the optimal price for the product that will please the consumer.
In any case, as far as we understand, the supply of almonds in Russia is sufficient. Because suppliers and manufacturers have been warned, they are armed and quickly take specific actions at a critical moment.
Source: People Talk
Errol Villanueva is an author and lifestyle journalist who writes for The Fashion Vibes. With a passion for exploring the latest trends in fashion, food, travel, and wellness, Errol’s articles are a must-read for anyone interested in living a stylish and fulfilling life.
