The Russian foreign minister was hospitalized with heart problems just hours after arriving in Indonesia for the G20 summit.
Sergei Lavrov, who departed from a Russian plane in Bali late on Sunday night, was admitted to hospital on Monday, according to local officials.
Lavrov, 72, will attend the summit in place of Russian President Vladimir Putin, who chose not to go after his failed invasion of Ukraine.
Officially, the Kremlin said Putin was “too busy” to attend. Political scientists in Russia speculated that he feared humiliation or death.
The last time Russian President Vladimir Putin was isolated at a G20 summit was in 2014, shortly after he seized Crimea – and he was so shunned that he left early.
Eight years later, after launching a massive offensive in Ukraine in February and threatening the West with nuclear weapons, the 70-year-old Russian leader decided to skip this week’s G20 meeting on the tropical island of Bali altogether.
Observers say the Kremlin is trying to shield the Russian leader from a storm of condemnation in Indonesia, but Putin’s failure to appear threatens to further isolate a country already battered by unprecedented Western sanctions.
Alexei Malashenko, senior researcher at the Institute for Dialogue of Civilizations, said Putin did not want to be publicly humiliated again.
“Upstairs you have to talk to people and be photographed,” said Malashenko.
“And who will he talk to and exactly how will he be photographed?”
The G20 meeting is inevitably overshadowed by Moscow’s offensive in Ukraine, which has rattled global energy markets and exacerbated food shortages.
Fyodor Lukyanov, a foreign policy expert close to the Kremlin, indicated that Putin is not ready to concede on Ukraine.
His position is known, it will not change. The position of the other side is also known,” said Lukyanov, editor of Russia magazine in Global Affairs magazine. “What’s the point of going?”
The Kremlin blamed Putin’s absence on scheduling conflicts, without specifying what prompted the Russian leader to skip one of the most high-profile world summits.
The Kremlin said Putin would not even speak via video link at the summit.
In comparison, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who will virtually attend the meeting, is expected to advocate for a stronger response to the Russian attack.
The Russian delegation will be led by Moscow’s top diplomat Sergei Lavrov.
The boxing foreign minister walked out of a G20 meeting in Bali in July after condemning Russia’s offensive in Ukraine and can expect another cold reception.
Political scientist Konstantin Kalachev said Putin’s refusal to travel to Bali reflected “a sense of stalemate” over Ukraine.
“He has nothing to say,” Kalachev said. “He has no proposal on Ukraine that can please both sides.”
Despite mobilizing hundreds of thousands of reservists in September, Russian forces in Ukraine have suffered setback after setback.
In September, the Russian army was forced to withdraw from the northeastern Kharkov region.
Russia announced on Friday that it would withdraw its troops from the strategic southern port city of Kherson, in a further humiliation for the Kremlin. The peace negotiations were put on hold.
Putin, who is shunned by most Western leaders, is seeking to deepen ties with countries that have traditionally had good relations with Moscow or that also oppose American dominance in global affairs.
“According to Putin, his refusal to go to the G20 summit will not prevent Russia from establishing relations with neutral states,” said Tatiana Stanovaya, the founder of R.Politik, a political analysis agency.
“Putin Believes Russia’s Anti-American Line Has Strong Support.”
The Kremlin insists that Russia is far from isolated, and Stanovaja pointed out that Putin is seeking allies in Africa, Asia and the Middle East.
“He is trying to build an anti-Western coalition,” she said.
Many political observers are skeptical that the Kremlin boss will be successful. After Putin sent troops into Ukraine on February 24, no major country rallied behind Russia, including China.
Russia’s attack on Ukraine has also shocked Moscow’s neighbors in Central Asia, prompting countries such as Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan to seek alliances elsewhere.
Kalachev said Russia’s confrontation with the West has pushed it to the margins of world politics and decision-making on pressing issues such as climate change.
“It’s not a pariah country like North Korea,” he said, “but Russia is no longer part of the world agenda that has nothing to do with the WWIII issue.”
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