On June 6, 2023, the magazine NatureCommunications published the work of scientists based in Korea, Canada and Germany. They used observational data from the years 1979-2019 to produce a series of simulations regarding the evolution of sea ice. “The results indicate that the first September without sea ice will occur as early as 2030-2050, regardless of the emission scenarios”. This is one month ahead of the IPCC estimates. Lighting.
What is Sea Ice?
Sea ice forms pack ice. It consists of salt water frozen from the cold on the surface of the ocean. It is now estimated that sea ice covers 7% of the land surface and about 12% of the world’s oceans.
What is sea ice used for?
As AFP details, in the summer, sea ice reflects the sun’s rays and thus helps cool the Arctic. The smaller its surface area, the faster this region heats up. In turn, this can “increase extreme weather events in mid-latitudes, such as heat waves and forest fires”according to Seung-Ki Min, co-author of the article. “It could also accelerate global warming by melting permafrost, as well as sea level rise by melting the Greenland ice sheet. »
Why is sea ice disappearing?
As Salomé Saqué explains in a series of tweets, sea ice reaches its annual minimum area in September: “Most of the time the Arctic Ocean, which is 14 million km², is almost completely covered in ice”. A figure supported by the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).
However, the June 6 article shows that this process is seriously undermined: the Arctic could be de-ice-free in September as early as 2030, 10 years earlier than predicted by the IPCC. There will then be only 1 million km2 of ice at this time of year, which allows experts to speak of no ice (this figure corresponds to the remaining ice along the coasts).
For the researchers, the disappearance of sea ice is caused almost entirely by man-made greenhouse gas emissions. The other factors (aerosols, solar and volcanic activity, etc.) remain much less important. Unfortunately even a low emissions scenario will no longer be sufficient to avoid the disappearance of sea ice: “ We need to cut CO2 emissions more ambitiously and prepare to adapt to this faster warming of the Arctic and its impact on human society and ecosystems.”.
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Source: Madmoizelle
Mary Crossley is an author at “The Fashion Vibes”. She is a seasoned journalist who is dedicated to delivering the latest news to her readers. With a keen sense of what’s important, Mary covers a wide range of topics, from politics to lifestyle and everything in between.
