Half of glaciers set to disappear by 2100 (but there’s hope)

According to the current scenario, which projects global warming to increase by 2.7 degrees, 65% of glaciers could melt by the end of the century.

Clearly it is not the news that will brighten our day, but it is better to know. An international study conducted by thirteen scientists, published on Thursday 5 January in the journal Sciencereveals it the melting of glaciers on Earth promises to be greater than expected. Even higher than the predictions of the IPCC report. According to calculations, based on the recent mass loss of a few 215,000 listed glaciers on the planetnearly half of them will have disappeared by the end of the century.

The different scenarios considered

The scientists who conducted this study presented different scenarios depending on the importance of global warming, responsible for the melting of ice and its consequences on sea level rise. Thereby, a 1.5 degree rise in temperature would lead to the disappearance of 49% of the world’s glaciers by 2100, or 26% of the total mass, because the smallest glaciers will be the first to be affected. It would mean a sea ​​level rise of 9 cm. In the worst-case scenario, where global warming would reach 4 degrees, even the largest glaciers such as Alaska would be affected and 83% of the glaciers would disappear, or 41% of the total mass, causing a rise in sea level of 15 centimeters.

Global warming already estimated at +2.7 degrees

To date, although the signatory states of the Paris Agreements (2015) have pledged to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees, we know that the goal will not be achieved. ” We are heading more towards +2.7°C at the end of the century. It would mean a disappearance of about 65% of the glaciers », said Etienne Berthier, French CNRS researcher who participated in this study, interviewed by Set free. “ At least 104,000 of them will disappear worldwide, half of them by 2050 »He added. “ Even in the best case scenario, if we have very proactive policies in terms of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, half of the glaciers will be doomed. »

The key to the great glaciers

Despite these unfortunate predictions, scientists are adopting a positive attitude. “ I think there is a small ray of hope and a positive message in our study, because it tells us that we can make a difference, that actions matter.”study co-author Regine Hock told AFP. The main problem is that of “ conservation of large high altitude glaciers in the Himalayas and arctic regionssays Etienne Berthier. For these glaciers, any action to limit temperature rise will have a key effect in limiting their contribution to sea level rise..

Cover photo credit: Ryan Richards / Unsplash