Covid UK: ONS test survey shows aces down but 3.7 million still infected

Covid cases in the UK today dropped last week, but infection rates remain surprisingly high, according to the country’s major test survey.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) weekly surveillance report estimates that 3.7 million people were infected with the virus in a given weekday ending April 9. A five-week growth period comes to an end after the Covid restrictions were released in February.

The prevalence also fell in Scotland and Northern Ireland and decreased in Wales, a sign that the epidemic has peaked in the UK.

Around 231,900 people have contracted the virus (equivalent to one in 13) in Wales – 95,900 (one in 19) in Northern Ireland. The ONS also estimated that probably 314,800 Scots had the disease during the same period (one in 17).

The ONS weekly report is the most reliable indicator of the current Covid situation as free testing has been canceled for the vast majority of Britons. He looks at a random sample of about 100,000 people and doesn’t trust people who come forward with symptoms that could skew the results.

The spills came within a week as some NHS leaders and experts have called for the return of Covid curbs, including masks and outdoors mixing.

Cases of the virus have also declined in Scotland and Northern Ireland and have declined in Wales, a sign that the UK epidemic is peaking everywhere.

Divided, positivity rates are falling in every region of England except the North East

Rates appear to be stable in the 50+ and 70+ age groups, which may be key to hospital pressure and may drop rapidly in some younger groups.

Omicron’s BA.2 sub-variant remains dominant in all four UK countries after overtaking its parent species earlier this year.

The NHS Confederation warned earlier this week that messages are needed to fight the virus, encouraging masks in crowded places and restrictions on meeting others indoors, claiming this Easter will be “as bad as any winter” for hospitals.

The renewed call for strict public health measures was based on the large number of Covid hospital admissions that are currently falling even without any non-drug intervention.

Today’s ONS report shows a total of 3,773,800 people contracted the virus in the UK between 3 April and 9 April, 8.8% less than 4,141,600 in the week ending 2 April.

Divided, rates are falling or falling in every part of England except the North East, where they still continue to rise.

The percentage of people who tested positive decreased across all age groups, except for those aged 7-11 and those aged 70 and over, where the trend is uncertain.

For Wales, rates generally increase for people aged 40 and over, while the trend is uncertain for young adults and children.

In Northern Ireland, the trend for young people and children has declined in recent weeks, while for the elderly the trend is uncertain. In Scotland, rates have generally fallen at all ages over the past few weeks.

The number of people admitted to Covid hospitals in the UK also seems to be falling. Government dashboard data shows the daily figure fell for the fourth consecutive day on Saturday, the most recent with data.

On Saturday, the most recent date for which data is available, 1,871 new entries were posted, down 8.3%. The decline in infections and the number of hospitals should quell fears of repression in the NHS.

Earlier this week, scientists from the NHS Confederation and Independent Sage group lobbied for the resumption of Covid controls to ease the pressure on healthcare. However, No10 resisted, saying, “Our Covid life plan is still valid.”

Meanwhile, confirmed or suspected coronavirus deaths in Scotland fell from 33 to 139 in the week through Sunday, according to the latest data.

As of April 10, 14,202 deaths were recorded in Scotland, where Covid was listed on the death certificate, according to figures released by the National Records of Scotland (NRS).

For the week of April 4-10, data showed 139 deaths reporting Covid-19 were recorded on the death certificate, down 33 from the previous week.

111 people aged 75 and over, 18 people aged 65-74, and 10 people under 65 died.

Data from the NRS showed that 71 deaths occurred in hospitals, 51 in nursing homes, and 16 deaths in a home or non-institutional setting, with one death occurring at another facility.

Pete Whitehouse, Director of NRS Statistics Services, said: “The latest figures show 139 deaths with Covid-19 on the death certificate last week. That’s 33 fewer deaths than the previous week.

“The number of all-cause deaths recorded in Scotland this week was 1,222, or 120, or 11%, above the five-year average.”

NRS data showed that 93% (13,113) of the 14,106 deaths from Covid-19 between March 2020 and March 2022 had at least one pre-existing condition, the most common being dementia or Alzheimer’s disease.

Monthly analysis shows that the age-standardized Covid-related death rate was higher in March 2022 (145 per 100,000) than it was in February 2022 (83 per 100,000).

During the pandemic, the highest rate of deaths from Kovid in April 2020 was 585 per 100,000 people.

NRS statistics are published weekly and cover all recorded deaths in Scotland where Covid-19 was noted on the death certificate.

Because NRS figures include suspected or probable cases, they differ from the lab-confirmed coronavirus deaths announced on weekdays by Public Health Scotland.

Official case, hospital admission and death rates for the rest of the UK will be released at around 16:00 today.