Omicron subvariant BA.2 is as contagious as OUR GIRLS –

A rapidly spreading subspecies of Omicron could be as contagious as measles, according to a former World Health Organization (WHO) official.

Professor Adrian Esterman, one of Australia’s leading epidemiologists, said BA.2 is 40 percent more contagious than the original variant.

He claimed it would have a baseline reproduction number (R0) of about 12, meaning that if it got out of control, each infected person would pass it on to a dozen individuals.

Its subspecies would make it five times more contagious than the original Wuhan virus and one of the most contagious diseases known to science.

The claim will explain why the mutated virus has outstripped its main strain in the UK in about a month, undermining China’s zero covid policy, which has so far managed to suppress every version of the virus.

Professor Esterman explained his methodology: ‘The basic replicate number (R0) for BA.1 is about 8.2, for BA.2 R0 is about 12.

“This makes it pretty close to measles, the most contagious disease we know of.”

The chart above shows the number of cases each variant has lagged since 1 February. It shows that BA.2 (brown) is now behind nearly all infections in the UK and outperforms the original Omicron (green) strain.

The R0 number is the average number of people each BA.2 patient would infect if there were no immune or behavioral changes in a population.

But most scientists say you don’t have to worry about the variant as it’s as light as the original Micron.

According to official estimates, the BA.2 sub-variant is now behind nearly all cases in the UK, or 83% of infections in the past week.

It predominated three weeks early and accounted for 52% of all infections in the week to February 20.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) estimates that the number of cases has increased since mid-February, with around one in 25 people infected in the UK last week.

Hospital admissions are also on the rise, but most seem coincidental, with tests positive after being hospitalized for another illness.

Scientists estimate that the original Wuhan strain of SARS-CoV-2 had an R0 of about 2.5.

However, measles, one of the most contagious viruses known, has an R0 value between 12 and 18.

Experts estimate the equivalent number of chickenpox in the region at 10 to 12.

Even though BA.2 has an R0 of 12, that doesn’t mean everyone infected with BA.2 will pass the virus on to a dozen others.

The actual percentage R, which indicates how fast an epidemic is growing or shrinking, is always much less than R0.

This is because it takes into account real-world data that can easily distort disease outbreaks, such as population immunity.

In Hong Kong, where early success in controlling the virus has led to low vaccine coverage, cases, hospitalizations and deaths are skyrocketing as BA.2 rises.

Professor David Livermore, a microbiologist at the University of East Anglia, said that “it may be the case” that R12 can be found in a population that is not immune to the virus.

But he pointed out that these populations now exist almost everywhere in the world, as the virus has reached every corner of the world.

When asked if people should be worried about BA.2, Professor Livermore said it wasn’t.

“I think the virus is just taking root in the population,” he tells MailOnline. “And BA.2 no longer appears to be capable of causing more serious disease than the classic Omicron”.

Professor Julian Tang, a respiratory scientist at the University of Leicester, said the estimate was “high enough” for a respiratory virus, but not impossible.

He told MailOnline: “It’s pretty high for respiratory virus, but it could be true. I need to see some estimates elsewhere before I look.”

In Denmark, where BA.2 has been dominant for weeks, authorities lifted restrictions in February, saying the virus was no longer a “critical threat”.

Daily Covid cases in the UK started to rise in early March on Freedom Day and shortly after BA.2 became dominant in the UK.

They’ve increased every day since then, reaching their highest level in a month, with currently around 63,000 recorded every 24 hours on average.

The number of hospital admissions is also increasing: an average of 1,300 people are admitted to the ward every day.

Deaths from Covid remain stable, but are a lagging indicator due to the time it takes for someone who has the disease to die from it.

Professor Mark Woolhouse, SAGE consultant and epidemiologist at the University of Edinburgh, told Forbes last week: “In my opinion, the main driver of the recent increase in cases and hospitalizations in the UK is the emergence of the BA subvariant 2 Omicron”.