The main NHS waiting list is expected to peak at around 8 million next summer before finally tapering off, according to a study.
Researchers at the Health Foundation think tank say strikes by junior doctors and consultants have hampered efforts to clear the Covid backlog.
The list is currently at a record high of 7.75 million, which is 210,000 more than it would have been without industrial action, they add.
There were 4.6 million people waiting for treatment in February 2020, but the numbers have soared as the NHS postponed most routine care during the pandemic to prioritize Covid patients.
New analysis shows Rishi Sunak and NHS England are unlikely to meet their targets to rapidly reduce waiting times.
The growing backlog in England reached 7.75 million in August – the equivalent of one in seven people. This includes nearly 400,000 people who have been stuck in the system for more than a year and are often in pain
The policy experts examined four possible scenarios to examine the prospect of reducing the waiting list by the end of 2024.
On current trends, the number could peak at 8 million in August 2024, assuming no further strikes, before falling again.
If the wage strikes continue, the waiting list could be 180,000 higher by the same time next year.
The analysis suggests that strikes are also likely to have an indirect impact by putting pressure on NHS finances and distracting management from improving productivity.
NHS England’s recovery plan for elective care, published in February 2022, included expectations that lists would fall by March 2024, while the Prime Minister promised in January 2023 that “NHS waiting lists will fall and people will get care faster”.
READ MORE: How big is the ‘hidden’ waiting list at YOUR hospital? Use our search to find out as research shows that more than 11 million people are now stuck in the NHS system and need follow-up care
MailOnline’s interactive tool lets you see the queue at your local council, although only half of people in England have shared the data
At the time of approval, the waiting list was 7.2 million.
The analysis also includes illustrative better and worse scenarios.
Only in a better case, in which the number of completed treatments grows by 10.4 percent a year, a third faster than now, would the waiting list fall to the same level as when the Prime Minister promised at the end of 2024.
In neither scenario would the expectations of the elective care restructuring plan be met.
The number of monthly referrals for treatment is now back to pre-pandemic levels and growing faster, suggesting patients are now coming forward who have been put off seeking treatment after being told to “protect the NHS”.
The number of monthly treatments is growing faster than before the pandemic, but the waiting list is still increasing as the number of treatments does not yet exceed the number of referrals.
The analysis shows that efforts to shorten the waiting list could also be wiped out by a new wave of Covid-19 or a bad winter flu season, or by cuts in hospital care due to financial pressures.
Charles Tallack, director of data analytics at the Health Foundation, said: “Behind these numbers are people longing for a diagnosis, patients with avoidable pain and lives on hold.”
He said strikes, underinvestment, staff shortages and neglect of social care had all contributed to the rise, adding: “It is entirely possible that reducing the elective care backlog and reducing waiting times to 18 weeks can be done again. “
“However, this will be a significant challenge and will require sustained focus, policy action and investment.”
Tim Mitchell, president of the Royal College of Surgeons of England, called the analysis “sobering” and said more needed to be done to recruit and retain staff.
Saffron Cordery, deputy director of NHS Providers, which represents NHS trusts, said the results showed the urgency to resolve strike action.
She added: “While strikes are not the main cause of longer waiting times, the report confirms that they exacerbate the problem by using up NHS resources that could be better used to reduce care backlogs.”
“Productivity and efficiency within the NHS will also be severely affected as the strikes result in unplanned costs.”
An NHS spokesman said: “Thanks to the hard work of NHS staff, more patients are being treated than before the pandemic – 87,000 more in August than in the same month in 2019.”
The findings come a day after a separate analysis by the reform think tank found 11 million patients were on “hidden” NHS lists waiting for follow-up appointments after treatment.
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Crystal Leahy is an author and health journalist who writes for The Fashion Vibes. With a background in health and wellness, Crystal has a passion for helping people live their best lives through healthy habits and lifestyles.
