Boris Johnson has feared he is “blinking too soon” as he plunges Britain into a second Covid lockdown after being warned that the gloomy modeling that led him to the move was “very wrong”.
The former prime minister confirmed on 31 October 2020 that the country would be locked down to prevent a “medical and moral disaster” for the healthcare system.
The decision was based in part on data from the University of Cambridge in collaboration with Public Health England, which suggested that England could record 4,000 Covid deaths a day by December without taking steps to slow the spread of the virus.
But Mr. Johnson told colleagues the next day that the data was “already very wrong” based on an assessment by scientists, according to the latest WhatsApp news from The Telegraph.
In a separate exchange in June 2020, Mr. Johnson is keen to ease restrictions on retail, hospitality and gatherings but has been told he was “too far ahead of public opinion”.
The former prime minister confirmed on October 31, 2020 (pictured) that the country would be shut down to avoid a “medical and moral disaster” for the health system
The scenario of 4,000 deaths per day was based on the assumption that there would be 1,000 per day in early November. The actual number of people dying is significantly lower, with an average of 182 a day in England and 162 confirmed for the whole of the UK yesterday
Cambridge and PHE predicted that the daily death toll could reach 4,000
On November 1, Mr. Johnson on a video conference call with Dr. Raghib Ali, an epidemiologist at the University of Cambridge, and Professor Carl Heneghan, an expert in evidence-based medicine at the University of Oxford, on Covid data.
He said Professor Heneghan was referring to data from Nowcast, a Cambridge University platform that estimates Covid levels, which “shows that *the death modeling you’ve been shown is already very wrong*”.
This is because the modeling is based on Covid levels from three weeks earlier.
A more recent study from the University of Cambridge suggested that daily deaths would come to 1,000 – four times lower than Mr. Johnson expected and only slightly higher than the first wave.
Johnson added Steve Baker, now Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, “believes the death toll is exaggerated”.
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“The attack will be that we blinked too quickly,” said the former prime minister.
Mr Johnson announced Britain’s second lockdown on October 31, which then came into force on November 4 for four weeks. Bars, restaurants, gyms and non-essential shops had to close their doors.
Britons were only allowed to go outside for work and education that could not be done from home, sports, medical reasons and essential groceries.
However, schools, colleges and universities were allowed to remain open – unlike the first lockdown in March this year. And people might meet another person from another household outside.
He said at the time that “no responsible prime minister” could ignore figures suggesting that the number of daily deaths would reach “several thousand per day” and that some hospitals would overflow within weeks.
The figure of 4,000 deaths per day in England was based on no action being taken to slow the spread of Covid.
But other models, such as those from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and the University of Warwick, suggested the death toll could be as high as 2,000.
In fact, a peak of 1,328 deaths was recorded on January 19, 2021, slightly higher than the April 2020 peak of 1,145.
In a separate series of WhatsApp messages on June 6, 2020, Mr. Johnson said he was keen to ease Covid restrictions but was advised against it by colleagues.
He said he was “thinking hard” about June 15 – when the government planned to open non-essential shops – and was also considering relaxing rules on gatherings, open-air hospitality and the opening of schools.
But Johnson said his communications advisers James Slack and Lee Cain “believe the overall package will support public opinion.”
On November 1, Mr. Johnson on a video conference call with Dr. Raghib Ali, an epidemiologist at the University of Cambridge, and Professor Carl Heneghan, an expert in evidence-based medicine at the University of Oxford, on Covid data. He said Professor Heneghan was referring to data from Nowcast, a Cambridge University platform that estimates Covid levels, which “shows that *the death modeling you’ve been shown is already very wrong*”.
In a separate series of WhatsApp messages on June 6, 2020, Mr. Johnson said he was keen to ease Covid restrictions but was advised against it by colleagues. He said he was “thinking hard” about June 15 – when the government planned to open non-essential shops – and was also considering relaxing rules on gatherings, open-air hospitality and the opening of schools. But Johnson said his communications advisers James Slack and Lee Cain “believe the overall package will support public opinion.”
Mr Hancock said Mr. Slack and Mr. Cain has “a point”.
The former health secretary said he was concerned about a “free-for-all” on non-essential retail, that it was “too early” for al fresco dining and that everyone “assumed it wouldn’t be until September .” more will be the case”. be in schools”.
While he said rules for families could be as simple as allowing camping and opening zoos, “the public is right and we have to keep our spirits up.”
A few days after sharing the messages, Mr. Hancock said decisions about schools are made based on the “best available science”.
Non-essential shops opened on June 15, while open-air restaurants finally returned on July 4, which Johnson said was the first based on the evidence.
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Crystal Leahy is an author and health journalist who writes for The Fashion Vibes. With a background in health and wellness, Crystal has a passion for helping people live their best lives through healthy habits and lifestyles.
