The ‘Kraken’ variant of Covid could soon become the dominant Covid strain in the UK, health chiefs warned today.
XBB.1.5 – a spin-off from Omicron – is considered the most transferable strain yet and has become extremely popular in the US in recent weeks.
Experts from the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) said the strain, which accounted for 4.5 per cent of cases between Boxing Day and New Year’s Day, was one of the variants “likely to occur in Britain”.
And they expressed concern that CH.1.1 — nicknamed “Orthrus,” a mythical two-headed dog — could soon become dominant as well.
Covid cases are estimated to have doubled in December when the “Kraken” XBB.1.5 variant began sweeping the UK. Analysts say nearly three million people had the virus during the holiday week
Earlier figures from the Sanger Institute, one of the UK’s biggest Covid surveillance centres, show that 4 per cent of cases in the week to December 17 were caused by XBB.1.5 (shown in press at bottom right).
How dangerous is XBB.1.5? Is this already the dominant Covid strain? And are the injections still working? Everything you need to know about “the Kraken” as a new variant begins to take over Britain
A highly contagious strain of Covid has emerged, which already accounts for one in 25 cases in the UK, data suggests
The warning comes despite experts claiming this week that fears about the Covid variant ‘Kraken’ may have been exaggerated.
UKHSA experts wrote in a technical briefing: “Aside from new new variants emerging, CH.1.1 and XBB.1.5 are currently the variants most likely to prevail in the UK after BQ.1.
“It is plausible that XBB.1.5 will lead to an increase in prevalence after the current wave, but it is currently too early to confirm this trend.”
In the week before Boxing Day, 227 Covid samples were sequenced XBB.1.5 (4.6 per cent), while 617 were CH.1.1 (12.4 per cent), according to UKHSA data.
While CH.1.1 is responsible for more infections, XBB.1.5 appears to grow faster and is believed to be more transmissible and immune evasive than other circulating strains.
BQ.1 was dominant over the winter and is behind most infections.
DR Meera Chand, director of clinical and emerging infections at the UKHSA said: “Through our genomic surveillance, we continue to monitor the development of variants in the Omicron family.
The UKHSA is constantly monitoring the situation and trying to understand the impact on public health.
“Vaccination remains our best defense against future Covid waves, so it remains important for people to come forward and take whatever doses they qualify for as soon as possible.”
XBB.1.5 has received mutations, including F486P, which help it evade Covid-fighting antibodies generated in response to vaccination or a previous infection.
Another change – S486P – will improve its ability to bind to cells.
The UKHSA said: “The growth benefit of XBB.1.5. is biologically plausible given the combination of immune escape properties and ACE-2 affinity expected based on available laboratory data.’
The emergence of XBB.1.5 has raised concerns that it could overcome vaccine-induced immunity after it caused a “stunning surge” in the US, where it was first discovered.
But the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the US agency responsible for combating the virus, has now lowered its estimates of the number of infections caused by the variant.
The latest data shows that the variant accounted for only 18.3 percent of cases in the week ending December 31.
It was previously estimated that 41 percent of the week’s infections were caused by XBB.1.5.
Professor Paul Hunter, a public health expert at the University of East Anglia, told MailOnline: “The CDC estimate of the growth rate of XBB.1.5 appears to be overestimated.
“They lowered their estimate of the percentage of all infections for the week ending December 31 from 40.5 percent to just 18.3 percent in the same week.”
The chart shows weekly hospital admissions per 100,000 people for Covid (red) and flu (blue). Surveillance figures from Britain’s Health Safety Agency showed that Covid admissions fell from 12 to 11 per 100,000 people, while admissions fell to 8 per 100,000 in the week ending January 1.
NHS data shows an average of 995 Covid patients were admitted to hospitals across England in the week to January 2. The figures suggest that the number of people seeking NHS care due to the virus peaked on average just before Christmas and has fallen since then.
XBB.1.5 – a spin-off from Omicron – is said to be the most transferable strain yet. But the US agency responsible for combating the virus, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), has now revised downwards its estimates of the number of infections caused by the variant in the previous week (from 41 percent to 18 percent). until 31/12
Professor Hunter admitted it was “still growing” but insisted the situation was “much less dire than it looked a few days ago”.
The strain is a mutant version of Omicron XBB, which was first discovered in India in August.
XBB, a combination of variants BJ.1 and BA.2.75, quadrupled the number of cases in just one month in some countries.
The latest figures from the UK suggest that one in 20 people contracted Covid over the Christmas holidays.
It is estimated that the number of cases doubled in December, just as XBB.1.5 began to sweep the UK.
Analysts say nearly three million people had the virus during the holiday week, mirroring the level of the summer, when experts called for the return of pandemic-era restrictions such as masks.
Experts fear the strain, believed to be the most contagious yet, is accelerating the UK’s winter surge and will weigh further on the ailing NHS in the coming weeks.
The healthcare system is already being hit by the worst flu outbreak in ten years.
Winter pressure has prompted fresh calls for measures to protect the NHS to return.
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Crystal Leahy is an author and health journalist who writes for The Fashion Vibes. With a background in health and wellness, Crystal has a passion for helping people live their best lives through healthy habits and lifestyles.
