Fears of the ‘Kraken’ variant of Covid may be overdone, experts warned today as data shows it is not spreading as quickly as first feared.
XBB.1.5 – a spin-off from Omicron – is said to be the most transferable strain yet.
Its emergence has fueled concerns that it is vaccine-induced immunity after a “staggering rise” in cases in the US, where it was first discovered.
But the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the US agency responsible for combating the virus, has now lowered its estimates of the number of infections caused by the variant.
XBB.1.5 – a spin-off from Omicron – is said to be the most transferable strain yet. But the US agency responsible for combating the virus, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), has now revised downwards its estimates of the number of infections caused by the variant in the previous week (from 41 percent to 18 percent). until 31/12
Latest data shows that XBB.1.5 accounted for only 18.3 percent of US Covid cases in the week ending December 31 (second right column, dark blue).
Previously, 41 percent of infections in the week were reported as XBB.1.5 (far right column, dark blue)
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A highly contagious strain of Covid has emerged, which already accounts for one in 25 cases in the UK, data suggests
The latest data shows that the variant accounted for only 18.3 percent of cases in the week ending December 31.
It was previously estimated that 41 percent of the week’s infections were caused by XBB.1.5.
Professor Paul Hunter, a public health expert at the University of East Anglia, told MailOnline: “The CDC estimate of the growth rate of XBB.1.5 appears to be overestimated.
“They lowered their estimate of the percentage of all infections for the week ending December 31 from 40.5 percent to just 18.3 percent in the same week.”
Professor Hunter admitted it was “still growing” but insisted the situation was “much less dire than it looked a few days ago”.
Despite the overestimation, the latest CDC figures show that XBB.1.5 infections now account for a larger percentage of all cases.
About 27.6 percent of the Covid cases that ended in the week ending January 7 were caused by the variant.
It remains the only subvariant that is becoming more common in the United States.
But as in the UK, the data reflects only a fraction of the cases actually observed.
Professor Hunter said: “The very, very rapid growth hinted at last week certainly does not appear to be the case.
“The growth rate of an infection is largely a reasonable indicator of the final height of the curve (the peak number of infections). So very fast growth in the beginning leads to many more infections at the peak.
But looking at more recent data, the growth rate in the US seems to be slowing down quite a bit.
“But the results of sequencing in the last few weeks are often quite uncertain, as the sequencing of the positive can take up to three weeks. Surveillance systems are also particularly unstable during holiday periods.’
He added: “So right now it doesn’t look like XBB.1.5 will cause much of a problem as many thought last week.
“But wait another week and we’ll be more than two weeks out of the holiday season and we can regain confidence in the monitoring data.”
Cases are estimated to double in December, when the XBB.1.5 “Kraken” variant began sweeping the UK. Analysts say nearly three million people had the virus during the holiday week
Figures from the Sanger Institute, one of the UK’s largest Covid surveillance centres, show that 4 per cent of cases in the week to December 17 were caused by XBB.1.5 (shown in purple below right).
The chart shows weekly hospital admissions per 100,000 people for Covid (red) and flu (blue). Surveillance figures from Britain’s Health Safety Agency showed that Covid admissions fell from 12 to 11 per 100,000 people, while admissions fell to 8 per 100,000 in the week ending January 1
NHS data shows an average of 995 Covid patients were admitted to hospitals across England in the week to January 2. The figures suggest that the number of people seeking NHS care due to the virus peaked on average just before Christmas and has fallen since then.
On December 17, XBB.1.5 was listed for the first time on the institute’s weekly updated virus dashboard.
XBB.1.5 has received mutations, including F486P, which help it evade Covid-fighting antibodies generated in response to vaccination or a previous infection.
Another change – S486P – will improve its ability to bind to cells.
Figures from the Sanger Institute, one of the UK’s largest Covid surveillance centres, show that 4 per cent of cases in the week to December 17 – the latest data available – were caused by XBB.1.5.
This is the first time the strain has been included in the institute’s virus dashboard, which is updated weekly.
The strain is a mutant version of Omicron XBB, which was first discovered in India in August.
XBB, a combination of variants BJ.1 and BA.2.75, led to a fourfold increase in the number of cases in just one month in some countries.
The latest figures from the United Kingdom suggest that one in 20 people contracted Covid over the Christmas holidays.
Cases are estimated to double in December as XBB.1.5 began sweeping the UK.
Analysts say nearly three million people had the virus during the holiday week, mirroring the level of the summer, when experts called for the return of pandemic-era restrictions such as masks.
Experts fear the strain, thought to be the most contagious yet, is accelerating the UK’s winter surge and weighing further on the ailing NHS in the coming weeks.
The ailing health care system is already being hit by the worst flu outbreak in a decade. Winter pressure has prompted fresh calls for action to protect the NHS for returns.
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Crystal Leahy is an author and health journalist who writes for The Fashion Vibes. With a background in health and wellness, Crystal has a passion for helping people live their best lives through healthy habits and lifestyles.
