Guayaquil faces a growing threat of severe urban flooding this month as heavy rainfall coincides with high tides and rising river levels. The warning was issued on Friday in a report by the National Committee for the Regional Study of the El Niño Phenomenon, known as CN-Erfen.
According to the report, high water in the Guayas River and elevated sea levels during upcoming spring tides could prevent stormwater from draining away. Across Ecuador's coastal region, the intensification of rainfall could raise flood risks, particularly in areas with limited drainage.
Sectors of the city already experienced flooding during heavy downpours on 26 October and 1 November, when canals overflowed into neighbourhoods and low-lying ground. During the recent heavy rains, Guayaquil recorded more than 90 sectors with water accumulation, with around 40 of those reaching flood levels.
Guayaquil is Ecuador's largest city and main commercial port, situated on the tidal Guayas River near the Pacific coast. Much of the urban area lies close to sea level, meaning gravity-fed municipal drains struggle to discharge runoff into the river whenever tides are high.
Record October rainfall and El Niño threat
Rainfall in October already exceeded normal values across monitored stations in the coastal region and the Galápagos Islands, according to the CN-Erfen report. The naval oceanographic station, Guayaquil-Inocar, recorded a single-day downpour of 216.7 millimetres on 26 October, while Baltra registered 196.4 millimetres on 30 October.
In historical comparisons, monthly rainfall totals at several stations, including Guayaquil-DGAC, surpassed those recorded in October 1982 and October 1997. In La Concordia, by contrast, accumulated rainfall remained below the totals recorded in both of those years.
The agency's latest data indicates that El Niño could reach a very strong or extraordinary intensity in Ecuador, comparable to the major episodes of 1982 to 1983 and 1997 to 1998. During those years, the phenomenon battered coastal areas with force and generated severe flooding across multiple settlements.
El Niño is a recurring weather pattern driven by warming sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Historically, strong events alter global atmospheric patterns and bring prolonged, heavy rainfall to western South America, overwhelming river basins and coastal communities.
Upcoming spring tide dates and river alerts
Ecuador's tide calendar forecasts several periods of spring tides, known locally as aguajes, over the coming weeks. High tides are forecast from 9 to 12 November and again from 8 to 11 December. Peak spring tides are scheduled between 25 and 28 November, as well as from 23 to 26 December.
Authorities from CN-Erfen advised that throughout each of these periods, it is advisable to follow rain and tide forecasts together with observed water levels in the Guayas River. Spring tides occur when the gravitational pull of the moon and sun align, producing exceptionally high tides that push marine water into river estuaries and block drainage.
