Germany's postwar political "firewall" against the far-right is under mounting strain as the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party grows from a marginal protest movement into a serious contender for power, particularly in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt, where the party is polling strongly enough to threaten its first major state-level election win.
For more than seven decades, Germany maintained one of the strictest sets of political barriers against far-right movements in Europe. The core principle, known as the "Brandmauer," or firewall, held that no mainstream democratic party would cooperate with forces seen as challenging the country's postwar democratic order.
That doctrine is now facing unprecedented pressure. The AfD, once dismissed as a fringe party, has grown into a political force capable of contesting power outright, with its strongest support concentrated in eastern Germany.
A wall built after Nazism
The Brandmauer was not simply a political arrangement between parties. It grew out of Germany's historical experience with Nazism.
After the collapse of the Nazi regime, Germany's political system was designed to prevent anti-democratic forces from returning to power. Under a principle known as "wehrhafte Demokratie," or militant democracy, the state is allowed to defend its institutions against movements considered a threat to the constitutional order.
For decades, the country's main parties, the Christian Democratic Union and its Bavarian sister party the Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU), the Social Democrats (SPD), the Greens and the Free Democrats (FDP), held a common line against extremist political forces.
The AfD changed that dynamic. Founded in 2013 initially as a Euroskeptic party, it has since evolved into a movement built around a hardline stance on immigration, criticism of the European Union, opposition to military support for Ukraine and a more conciliatory position toward Russia.
Did isolating the AfD backfire?
The central question in German politics now is whether the Brandmauer achieved its goal or ended up strengthening the AfD instead.
Supporters of the exclusion strategy argue that the firewall prevented the far-right from gaining institutional legitimacy. Critics counter that the AfD has used its exclusion to portray itself as the only genuine opposition to what it calls a political establishment.
According to the analyses behind this account, isolating the AfD has not shrunk its support. In many cases, it has instead reinforced the party's narrative that every other party forms a single "system" working to keep it out of power.
The test in Saxony-Anhalt
The biggest test is now unfolding in Saxony-Anhalt, an eastern German state where the AfD appears significantly strengthened and is seeking its first major win in a state election.
A win for the far-right party would not automatically translate into government, since the other parties have so far refused any form of cooperation with it. Even so, the mere prospect of the AfD holding power would amount to a political earthquake for Germany.
The case carries particular symbolic weight, since it would mark the first time since the Second World War that a German far-right party gained substantial control of a state government.
Pressure on Merz's government
The AfD's rise coincides with a period of political difficulty for the government of Chancellor Friedrich Merz.
The CDU is trying to counter pressure from the right by taking a tougher line on issues such as immigration and security. That strategy creates a difficult dilemma: moving closer to AfD positions risks reinforcing its agenda, while ignoring the issue risks losing voters further to the right.
At the same time, economic stagnation, the energy crisis, the rising cost of living and dissatisfaction with traditional governments have created fertile ground for populist parties.
Calls for a ban
The debate over the AfD has moved beyond ordinary daily political dispute. The question now being asked in Germany is whether a democratic system can protect itself by excluding a force that keeps winning more voters, or whether continued isolation ultimately strengthens its influence instead.
Some in Germany are calling for the AfD to be banned outright, arguing that parts of the party have adopted positions that run counter to the constitution. Others warn that such a move could reinforce the party's narrative of "political persecution."
From the margins toward power
The AfD's rise represents one of the biggest challenges facing modern Germany. The party has managed to turn public frustration over immigration, the economy and a crisis of confidence in institutions into a powerful political current.
The old German model, under which the far-right was kept out of power through a broad agreement among democratic parties, is now being tested. The question is no longer only whether the AfD can win elections, but whether Germany can preserve its historic political firewall when an increasingly large share of society now stands on the other side of it.
