Three reports published by the Spanish Ministry of Defense describe migratory flows from Morocco as a weapon used against Spain, warning that Madrid lacks preparation to confront hybrid tactics.
The military analyses present a stark contrast to the stance of the Spanish Interior Ministry, which has defended Morocco following a mass border breach in North Africa. More than 70,000 irregular migrants entered the Spanish enclave of Ceuta on July 30, 2026, prompting an immediate political crisis.
Interior Minister Fernando Grande-Marlaska closed ranks with Rabat after the incident, praising what he described as exemplary cooperation from Moroccan security forces. His department insisted that organized human trafficking networks were solely responsible for the surge.
Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez placed Minister Ángel Víctor Torres in charge of coordinating the government response to the Ceuta emergency. At the same time, authorities in Ceuta are pressuring the Moncloa Palace, the official seat of the Spanish Prime Minister in Madrid, to arrange an official visit by King Felipe VI to the enclave on September 2.
Migration as a diplomatic lever
The three military documents were published between July 2025 and June 2026 under the Higher Center for National Defense Studies, known as Ceseden. They outline how Moroccan authorities systematically use human migration as a diplomatic lever to extract political concessions from Spain.
The most explicit study was released on November 7, 2025, by the Higher School of the Armed Forces, an institution integrated into Ceseden. Titled Migrations from Africa to Spain: a foreign policy tool, the report was written by Army Engineer Commander Joaquín Peralta.
Peralta asserted that Morocco has repeatedly instrumentalized migration, pointing to the May 2021 Ceuta border crisis as the most notorious example. He wrote that Rabat understands its role as a transit nation toward Europe and can activate or deactivate migrant crossings to serve its geopolitical interests.
According to the report, border control cooperation has allowed Morocco to secure economic aid, investments, equipment, and international strategic recognition. Peralta concluded that human flows form part of an emerging pattern of coercion designed to pressure or destabilize neighboring states without using military force, turning migration management into an integral element of Moroccan foreign policy.
Deterrence and hybrid threats
An earlier study published on July 4, 2025, by the Higher School of the Armed Forces focused on Spanish defense limitations. Titled Spanish deterrence strategies against non-shared threats in the 21st century, the paper was authored by Army Commander Emilio José Arias.
Arias examined tensions stemming from Moroccan territorial claims over Ceuta and Melilla, two Spanish autonomous cities located on the coast of North Africa. He evaluated potential hybrid threats, including the closure of the commercial customs border in Melilla, disinformation campaigns, the Pegasus spyware case, and irregular border crossings.
The analysis stated that Morocco allegedly facilitated the massive entry of migrants into Ceuta in May 2021. Arias wrote that the action compromised Spanish sovereignty and demonstrated hybrid tactics aimed at influencing political decisions and public perception in Madrid.
The report concluded that Spanish deterrence strategies suffer from serious limitations, describing the response from Madrid as often late or weak. Arias also questioned foreign policy decisions made by Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez regarding Western Sahara, a former Spanish colony. He warned that making concessions without receiving clear public counter-benefits resembles a policy of appeasement that risks encouraging further demands from Rabat.
Strategic pressure in the Maghreb
The most recent analysis was published on June 16, 2026, by the Spanish Institute for Strategic Studies, a defense think tank within Ceseden. Titled The Maghreb in 2025: Navigating domestic challenges and regional and international changes, the document formed part of the Strategic Panorama 2026 report.
Authored by Miguel Hernando de Larramendi, a professor of Arab and Islamic Studies at the University of Castilla-La Mancha, the study detailed an increasingly assertive diplomatic strategy by Morocco. Larramendi reported that Rabat frequently triggers diplomatic disputes with traditional partners as a pressure tactic, primarily to gain international backing for its position on Western Sahara.
The paper cited the 2021 Ceuta border crisis as a key instance of this strategy. All three defense studies converged on the conclusion that Rabat represents a clear and persistent security threat to Spain.
