After a Summer of $100M Box Office Opens, August and Early Fall Will Dry Up: Here’s Why

When Dwayne Johnson takes the stage at San Diego Comic-Con next week, it would be truly seismic for Warner Bros. to announce that it’s moving forward with a New Line/DC movie release date. black man It starts in early fall on October 21.

But this will not happen.

Huge studio fees are piling up in post-VFX production houses, causing many trends to push release dates, according to multiple distribution sources Deadline. The direct consequence of this is a shortage of carp from mid-August to mid-October.

Unlike last September and October, which together had less than $1 billion in overall fallout like Covid. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, No Time to Die, Venom 2, Dune Y kills halloween The blockbuster falls short this fall. Before the pandemic, there is usually at least one tent (eg. most movies, nun, Departure), turned into a comic book movie screening the first weekend of October. clown Y poison franchise.

Unless it’s Universal/Blumhouse/Miramax, there won’t be such wealth this year. halloween is over Coming on October 14th and black man next weekend.

Sources say film delays could also be due to Covid-19 production interruptions, meaning interruptions when crew members or main cast fell ill.

Warner Bros. already announced in March black man The lucrative July 29 release date has been pushed back to its current fall release date. This is linked to other DC movies, including: Get excited Y aquaman And The Lost Kingdom, It was originally scheduled for 2022, but has been delayed to next year.

On Monday, Burbank, CA studio Stephen King’s salem party There was also a loss in the production supply chain after the pandemic. The blockbuster post-Labor Day weekend made the headlines of the new roster from September 9, set for the pre-pandemic horror fare, to April 21 next year.

Sony/Marvel Animation Spider-Man: Opposite the Spider-Verse The jump is scheduled for the first weekend of October. Before CinemaCon, however, the studio postponed Lord Miller’s feature film to next year because the film required serious work.

After the last big draw of the summer, Sony’s Brad Pitt action movie FAST TRAIN On August 5, expect the weekend box office to drop to mid-October.

However, let Wall Street cynics know that the expected slowdown at the domestic box office was due not to lower consumer demand but to a lack of marketable products available.

A senior studio distribution executive says about the gap between late summer and mid-autumn: “It’s not about strategy.” Another added, “If the studios had the product, they would release it.”

Disney/Marvel delivered what is believed to be its last opening over $100 million last weekend. Thor: love and thunder ($144 million as of today); We probably won’t see one until then. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Coming November 11th. While many in the city worried that streaming would destroy movie sets as we learned to live with the pandemic, even though we were going to close the year with nearly $7 billion at the local box office, that didn’t happen. A figure that still does not exceed pre-pandemic levels, which exceeded 11 billion dollars a year.

There’s a lot to celebrate at the box office right now: Thor: love and thunder Repeated for the fifth $100 million+ opening of the summer and the sixth year to date. According to Comscore, after movie theaters in New York and Los Angeles reopened in mid-March 2021, the monthly box office hit the pandemic high of $985.7 million in June. Summer (the period between the first weekend of May and July 10) with $2.27 billion repeats 53% of the current $4.2 billion of 2022 local BO.

The summer season is currently 12% off compared to the same period of 2019, but the difference may increase as we enter August. when it comes to legs Thor: love and thunderShowcase says an MCU title will have at least 45 days of theatrical run before it reaches Disney+. Unbelievable for a movie directed by Taika Waititi, the latest native to over $300 million.

The good news for the attendee is that during the first weekend of December there are at least one, sometimes two, broadcasts booked every weekend. However, such fare is primarily geared towards a specific demo (i.e. the women in New Line’s sultry adult drama). don’t worry honey) or for adults (i.e. David O. Russell’s New Regency/20th Century Studio comedy) amsterdam on 4 November).

Many studio executives wanted to greenlight and support a variety of mid-budget and adult films for the big screen, films reaching more and more publishers. A series of adult films are coming this fall that will be another litmus test of whether such a product can win. But midsize and auteur films have always been made in the bustle of the market and have been unsuccessful; The only bright spot is Warner Bros. elvis leading to the $100 million Interstate and A24 everything everywhere at the same time It cleared $67.6 million.

Expect plenty of mature, award-winning films to make sparkly premieres in the troika of Venice, Telluride, and Toronto fall film festivals. Such releases cannot be ignored, as critically acclaimed films coming out of festivals can break big box office records. For example, the Jennifer Lopez leak cheat At TIFF 2019, the stripper achieved a Rotten Tomatoes Certified Critical Score of 87% and went on to open with $33.1 million and $105 million domestic finishes. For this a star is born Premiering at Venice and TIFF in 2018, it followed with a win with $42.9 million opening, $215.3 million ending, eight Oscar nominations and a new 90% certified score.

$20-30 million initial for any adult demo, including medium film a female king (16 September)don’t worry honey (September 23) and Billy Eichner’s gay romantic comedy Siblings (September 30) By the way, that would be a really cool result.

in Yemen Elvis It’s basically the only adult drama to run on a large scale, and it’s 2 hours 39 minutes long. However, the success of this film was due to its being served as a counter-program in a sea of ​​summer franchises such as the following. Top Gun: Hipster, Approaching $600 million Strange doctor in the multiverse of madness ($411 million) and Jurassic World: Domination ($350.5 million). Going to the movies is a business of mutual understanding and the marketing power of small movie trailers. Elvis Such stores are undeniable.

Unfortunately, we’re faced with a nearly three-month theatrical schedule that feels like counter-planning.

Here’s the rest of the 2022 movie release schedule:

15 July
claws of anger (Party)
where the crabs sing (sony)

July 22
No (uni)

29 July
Revenge (approach)
DC Super Pets League (DB)

August 5th
FAST TRAIN (sony)
Easter Sunday (uni)

August 12
Autumn (LG)
bodies sizes (A24) – wide extension

19 August
creature (uni)

26 August
Invitation (sony)

september 2
Spider-Man: No Way Home: The Funniest Version (sony)
Call Jesus, save your soul (approach)

September 9
barbarian (December 20)

16 September
a female king (sony)

September 23
don’t worry honey (New line)
avatar (again) (20/Disney)

September 30
smile (Party)
Siblings (uni)

October 7
Lyle, Lyle, crocodile (sony)

October 14 – where the calendar for the holiday warms up.
halloween is over (uni)
White bird: a great story (LG)

October 21
black man (New line)
Untitled Paramount
ticket to heaven (uni)

October 28
devil light (LG)

November 4
amsterdam (December 20)

11 November
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (brother)

18 November
said (uni)
Menu (search light)

23 November
strange world (brother)
bone and all (RUA)
loyalty (sony)
fabelmann (uni) – wide search

December 2
a violent night (uni)

December 9 – Nothing dated

December 16
Avatar: The Way of Water (December 20)
Revelation Warning: hero dies (Focus) – wide expansion

December 21
Shazam: Wrath of the Gods (DB)
Puss in Boots: Last Wish (uni)
I want to dance with someone (sony)

December 23
December 20

December 25
a man named Otto (sony)