Former FDA chief says US Covid cases ‘will rise from here before falling’

Some experts and health officials are warning that Covid cases in the US will increase again, with sewage data and data from abroad showing that a resurgence of the declining virus may be very imminent. Not everyone agrees, however, while others are convinced that a full-fledged march is unlikely this spring, although the country is likely to see a slight increase soon.

Dr. Scott Gottlieb, former director of the Food and Drug Administration and current Pfizer board member, told CNBC. squeak box He said on Friday that while he expects the number of cases to increase in the near future, he does not foresee the same devastating Covid wave as others.

“I don’t think it will be another big wave of infections, but we’ll probably go up from here without seeing a drop,” he said.

This contrasts Gottlieb with some other health officials who have issued strong warnings about the future of the pandemic as the number of cases increases in other parts of the world.

The World Health Organization (WHO) warns that the number of cases worldwide is rising and that this is the “tip of the iceberg” of a spring wave. Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, warns that mask orders and newly lifted quarantine restrictions may need to return.

Despite increases abroad, Covid cases in the United States have dropped 14% in the past week, with an average of 32,820 cases per day, one of the lowest daily averages since the start of the pandemic.

The “hidden” variant of BA.2 Omicron (pink) accounts for approximately 23% of COVID-19 cases in the US, up from 11% last week and 6% the previous week. The Omicron variant accounts for every single strain case in the Americas.

The WHO reported that the number of Covid-19 cases worldwide increased by 8% last week to 11 million every seven days. The biggest jump was seen in the Western Pacific, where cases rose 25% week-on-week. There was an increase of 14% in Africa and 2% in Europe.

European countries, which are usually a few months ahead of the USA during the pandemic period, are among the countries that experience alarming increases. The number of cases in the UK rose 36% last week to 91,000 a day. This comes after weeks of decline.

Dr. Former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb (pictured) believes Covid cases may increase in the near future, but the US will prevent a large-scale increase

These increases come after Covid cases declined for two months in a row after the wave from the Omicron variant quickly peaked and then fell.

Some leading officials are sounding the alarm that these slight increases are doomsday for much of the world, even as many countries approach a “return to normal” on the way to spring.

“This increase is occurring despite reduced testing in some countries, which means that the cases we’re seeing are just the tip of the iceberg,” WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said at a press conference. said. next weeks.

The agency has been more cautious than many other officials during the pandemic, often asking for continuous concealment and blocking orders, even as much of the world has begun to abandon them in recent weeks.

“Really, if we see a comeback and a resurgence, we should be able to go back and return to any degree of reduction commensurate with the situation,” Fauci, the country’s leading infectious disease expert, told CNN on Thursday.

“We can’t say we’re done. To continue.’ We have to be flexible because we are dealing with a dynamic situation.’

Fauci was also one of the more cautious voices during the pandemic, often considering strict quarantine measures and other clearances to contain the virus.

These increases have been attributed to the Omicron ‘hidden’ variant, or officially named BA.2. The stealth variant is 30% more transferable than the BA.1 strain that took over the world late last year, but an Omicron strain believed to be just as mild.

But Gottlieb has a more positive view. Experts believe that people infected with the BA.1 strain of the variant should have innate immunity to BA.2, since both sexes are sufficiently similar, innate antibodies should provide cross-immunity.

“What we do know is that the immunity you get from omcron is very protective against this BA.2 variant,” Gottlieb said.

“There is no reason to believe that the lines of this wave will be very different from BA.1, and probably less so because we have a lot of Omicron immunity.”

The situation in America is very positive at the moment, cases are still on the decline and the secret variant is still not taking hold in the country.

As of Thursday morning, the United States saw an average of 32,820 new cases each day, down 11% from last week and 96% from the peak of 800,000 daily cases reached in mid-January of the year. Micron.

But the decline in the number of cases has slowed and there are early signs that the trend may soon reverse. After a rapid decline since mid-January, the number of daily cases in the United States fell to around 30,000 a day with little movement last week.

This is one of the lowest cases of infection to hit the country since the virus first broke out across the country in early 2020, but the drop in cases has slowed.

The CDC warned this week that the agency is seeing early signs of an increase in the number of cases. Wastewater data for the first decade of March show cases increasing in one-third of test sites in the United States.

Wastewater monitoring works by using sewer samples to find the prevalence of the virus in each community. It is not possible to determine which people actually tested positive for the virus or the exact number of cases, but it does give authorities a general idea of ​​how cases are developing in certain areas.

Surveillance can be more accurate than raw numbers in assessing COVID risk, as many people have asymptomatic infections that will never be tested and unknowingly spread – especially at a time when large numbers of vaccines are made and vaccinated – without being added to official totals.

Covid also shows up in the garbage before the person experiences any symptoms, meaning there is a gap between the increase in wastewater data and the increase in official data.

Dr. Amy Kirby, who leads the CDC’s wastewater monitoring, still reassures the public that nothing is wrong, but officials are monitoring the situation.

“Although wastewater levels are very low overall, we’re seeing an increase in sites reporting increases,” he told NBC.

“These bumps may reflect a small increase from very lows to still lows.”

However, the current number of cases in America is so low that small increases in the number of cases should not be devastating or overwhelming health systems.

The country also has a high vaccination rate, with nearly 90 percent of American adults receiving at least one COVID-19 vaccine, warns nearly 100 million Americans.

BA.2 failed to catch on in the United States, as did most of Europe. While the ‘hidden’ variety quickly became dominant in the UK and Denmark when it was first discovered earlier this year, it has yet to make a big impact in the US.

According to the latest data released by the CDC on Tuesday, BA.2 represents 23% of active Covid cases in the United States, with BA.1 still dominant.

The Omicron variant accounts for every single case in the United States as a whole, and the high-permeability, vaccine-resistant strain is eliminating the Delta variant entirely this year, according to the CDC.

However, the share of BA.2 in Covid infections in America is growing rapidly, with the variant responsible for just 11% of cases last week and just 6% the week before.

It is most common in New Jersey and New York and the northeastern parts of the United States, accounting for approximately 40% of cases in both designated areas.

While the strain has taken its place in many parts of Europe, it is not yet the dominant Covid strain anywhere in the Americas.