The Greek government's economic team is counting on inflation to de-escalate in November following sharp drops in global crude oil and natural gas prices.
Officials in Athens are expressing relief after political changes in the United States eased geopolitical tensions that had previously driven international energy markets higher.
Brent crude oil has fallen below 98 dollars a barrel, retreating from highs during October when the benchmark price exceeded 113 dollars a barrel on multiple trading days. At the same time, European wholesale natural gas, which causes equal or even greater concern for policymakers because it directly determines wholesale electricity generation costs, dropped to 85.6 euros per thermal megawatt-hour on Friday. That decline follows a mid-October peak of 115 euros, with prices continuing to show a downward trend.
Brent crude, extracted from the North Sea, serves as the major pricing benchmark for two thirds of the world's internationally traded physical oil. In European energy systems, wholesale natural gas prices are quoted per thermal megawatt-hour, directly influencing power utility tariffs and consumer electricity bills.
Falling energy and fuel prices
Lower international energy costs provide breathing room for Greece, where fuel costs feed directly into transportation networks and domestic household budgets. Government planners emphasize that even though reductions in wholesale fuel prices often face delays before reaching retail petrol pumps, the underlying direction for domestic inflation remains downward.
Under European energy market regulations, wholesale power exchanges use marginal pricing systems, meaning expensive gas-fired generation plants often set the clearing price for all electricity. When natural gas prices fall, electricity generation costs decline rapidly, easing pressure across commercial and industrial supply chains.
United States political shifts
Wider optimism across the Greek administration stems from the political shakeup in Washington following the United States midterm elections. The Republican Party lost its majority in both the House of Representatives and the Senate, a shift that observers believe will restrain the impulsive reactions of President Donald Trump in the crisis with Iraq and Iran.
That changing political dynamic was visible in the first statements delivered by the American president after the midterm vote, in which he appeared no longer so eager to continue military operations.
Officials noted that even if the geopolitical atmosphere shifts again, institutional safeguards will now be in place to ensure a milder handling of the Middle East crisis. Those political checks are seen as reducing the risk of a fresh escalation that could trigger another surge in global energy prices.
In the United States constitutional system, congressional midterms determine control of both legislative chambers. When an American president loses majorities in Congress, legislative committees gain substantial oversight powers over executive policy, national security spending, and foreign engagements.
Food prices and market monitoring
Expectations for cooling inflation also rest on official food price monitoring, which Greek authorities report is showing targeted rather than broad-based price increases across grocery shelves.
Price sampling by authorities shows fresh vegetable prices recording increases of up to 100 percent for out-of-season items such as tomatoes, alongside increases of up to 15 percent on certain seasonal vegetables. On the positive side, prices for fruit and meat appear to have stabilized following many consecutive months of continuous increases.
Supermarket price agreement extension
To sustain that downward momentum, an informal price-reduction agreement that took effect at the end of August has been extended until the end of the year. The pact was originally scheduled to expire at the end of October before the Ministry of Development and market representatives agreed on a prolongation.
The Ministry of Development oversees domestic commercial activity, market transparency, and consumer protection across Greece, frequently coordinating with supermarket chains and food distributors on voluntary price moderation measures.
The extended initiative applies to a government list of approximately 1,000 product codes, down from 1,790 codes included during the initial phase in September and October. The new list removes 450 school supply codes that were introduced for the start of the academic year.
More than 600 of the 1,000 items in the extended agreement involve branded consumer goods, 60 codes cover fresh meat products, and the remaining codes consist of supermarket private-label items. Private-label goods are manufactured for specific retailers and sold under store brands, generally offering lower prices than heavily marketed national brand alternatives.
Responsible ministries will maintain close surveillance throughout November and over the coming months. Greek authorities emphasized that market conditions remain volatile, with no clear indication of when or how the current situation will ultimately end.
