Avatar: The Way Of Water is #1 in Deadline 2022’s Most Valuable Blockbuster Tournament

Deadline’s Most Valuable Blockbuster tournament took a break during the pandemic, when theaters were closed for most of 2020-2021 and theatrical titles became more common on both the big screen and studios’ respective streaming platforms. Returning from that side, studios have largely returned to their theatrical release models and the downstream monetization they can bring. Not to mention their strength in launching IPs around the world with huge global marketing campaigns. When it comes to evaluating the financial performance of top films, it’s not about how much a film costs at the box office. The true story is told as production budgets, P&A, talent royalties and other costs collide with box office and ancillary revenue from VOD to DVD and TV. To get closer to that mysterious end of the equation, Deadline is recapping our Most Valuable Blockbuster tournament for 2022, using data from experienced and trusted sources.

THE MOVIE

Avatar: the way of water
20th Century Studios/TSG/Lighthouse/Disney
Total profit: $531.7 million

It should come as no surprise that James Cameron Avatar: the way of water won Deadline’s Most Valuable Movie Blockbuster tournament for 2022. It beat Paramount/Skydance/New Republic at the worldwide box office Top Gun: Maverick, $2.3 billion to $1.49 billion. Go to the bottom row for more explanation of the numbers.

First, let’s see that there has never been a production like this avatar franchises in Hollywood history. Yes, there are back-to-back sequels to this Avengers: Infinite War And Avenger: endgame, for Back to the Future II and III, and for the 2003 sequels Reload matrix And Matrix Revolutions, but no four sequels were ever filmed over a period estimated to exceed 17 years. It didn’t survive a major studio merger (with Disney swallowing 20th Century Fox) or a global pandemic that forced movie theaters to close for a year. Moreover, Cameron is a rare breed, a filmmaker who not only writes, directs and produces his films, but also edits them.

As avatar 2 and the sequels got the green light from 20th Century Fox in 2013, knowing that at the time Cameron had the two highest grossing films of all time avatar at number 1 and titanic at number 2. Then the big deal was made with the filmmaker to make these films.

At the time, Cameron took the novel approach of setting up a writers’ room at Lightstorm’s Manhattan Beach headquarters: Writers Rick Jaffa, Amanda Silver, Josh Friedman, and Shane Salerno all worked with Cameron and received full credits per story. Jaffa and Silver are credited for the screenplay away from the water, but each screenwriter gets credit per Cameron for future sequels. The writing group collaborated with the Art and Production Design department, with the latter immediately inspired by the ideas that popped up in the room. The writing team cracked all the scripts for the sequels before the film officially began filming, with the actors reading each one so they were aware of their story arcs. News Corp CEO Rupert Murdoch even stopped by the Manhattan Beach studio to check out the early production process and concept art as Cameron worked to see where all those hundreds of millions of dollars went.

At CinemaCon 2016, Cameron announced that he would expand the sequels from three to four; This revelation came from the writers room, with each sequel being about different worlds, ie the ocean inside Avatar: the way of watera fire world in part 3 and an earth bound sequel in Avatar 5.

Casting began in September 2017 for the first two sequels. There was live filming at the end of 2019, but this was interrupted by Covid in March 2020, after which production was halted for eight weeks. When Disney acquired 20th Century Fox, sources told Deadline that it was Bob Iger who was Cameron’s point of contact for further production (Cameron really doesn’t keep notes on the production).

THE BOX SCORE

IT COMES AFTER

Cameron tells GC The Avatar: the way of water “was the worst business case in film history” as it would have to be “the third or fourth highest grossing film in history” to break even.

As the third biggest film of all time with a $2.3 billion shortfall avataris $2.9 billion and Avengers: Endgame$2.79 billion, estimates from Deadline sources Avatar: the way of water profitable at $531.7 million. And that excludes the extra income avatar‘s presence in Disney theme parks, which the conglomerate also counts on its books.

Cameron also explained his GC Break-even theorems on a sequence of Who is talking to Chris Wallace?and said: “I never actually gave him a number. I said it had to be one of the highest grossing films in history and someone else applied that number and it was selected. The number is actually lower.”

He was convinced that the film’s success would prompt Disney to commit to the sequels he had in the works for the next six to seven years.

Avatar: the way of water‘s opening was nothing to write home about, though it was lower than many Marvel films and slow out of the gate. Original projections had the film at $500 million worldwide (the film opened to $441.7 million worldwide) and between $150 million and $175 million domestically (the film opened to $134.1 million in the US and Canada). Part of this had to do with moviegoers scheduling their viewing of the 3 hour 12 minute film in premium 3D ie Imax and Dolby which had limited seating. as something Avatar: the way of water has proven that exhibitions need more premium screen sizes to expand theater audiences. Avatar: the way of waterThe second weekend was marked by severe winter weather, but the film performed as Cameron pictures usually do, with the sequel earning $683 million, $1.6 billion overseas (including a massive $246 million in China, one of the few American films that broke ground since China destroyed the box office potential of American films) and $2.3 billion worldwide. Realize that the amount, excluding Russia, is one area where he is first avatar Earned $116 million.

There were wild rumors about the cost of production for avatar: the way of water, some suggest $700 million net. However, you pay back the amount of money it costs to shoot future sequels at the same time Avatar: the way of waterBased on the production schedule of , our sources estimate net production costs alone will be $400 million Avatar: Away from the water including New Zealand tax credits. TSG co-financed Avatar: the way of water about 25% with spending limits, experts say. Please note during the production of away from water Cameron had to take down younger cast members as they got older (eg Trinity Jo-Li Bliss, who plays Took, who was 7 when he was cast and is now 13, and Jack Champion, who was 12 when he was cast, Spider was cast , but it’s now 18.). Because Champion, according to Cameron, “grew like a weed”, the second, third and first acts of the fourth film had to be shot in one production.

No filmmaker in Hollywood history has had three films in the top 20 highest-grossing films of all time, let alone the top 10. Not even Steven Spielberg as a director (you have to go Jurassic Park at #32 with $1.1 billion). Cameron now has three of the top four. What do you pay a filmmaker like that? A payout higher than usual. Sources tell us that a large portion of $300 million in the Participations series will go to Cameron and producer Jon Landau. Cameron’s deal is said to be 20% of the first dollar, with escalations taking him up to 50%. We heard that the actors went crazy beforehand, rather than in the background. Cameron reportedly received just $350 million avatar, But then home entertainment was high (only $150 million in sales are expected for it avatar 2 despite high premium VOD rates). Worldwide streaming and television, including a double play on Disney+ and HBO in the pay window, is set at $200 million. Theatrical marketing of $175 million excludes the $170 million worldwide from advertising partners, including Mercedes-Benz. The $1.26 billion in cinema rentals is discounted at 25% of the Chinese box office, according to the source, an average of 55% for the rest of the world and 65% for the domestic. Why so high for the latter? Because Disney could demand high conditions from the exhibit because it was the only tent pole in movie theaters for three months before Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania open on Presidents Day weekend.

Avatar 3 is scheduled to open on December 20, 2024, with the fourth film opening on December 18, 2026. Avatar 5 is scheduled for December 22, 2028.