An Air India flight carrying 134 passengers from Phuket, Thailand, to Delhi, India, was hit by severe turbulence on August 4, leaving at least 12 people injured after the force threw unbelted travellers into the cabin ceiling.
The aircraft was cruising at altitude approximately 90 minutes after takeoff when it experienced a sudden drop caused by an altitude change. The impact cracked parts of the plane's interior and left one passenger believed to have suffered a spinal fracture.
The aircraft landed safely at Delhi's Indira Gandhi International Airport at around 11am local time, where emergency services were waiting on the tarmac. Paramedics wheeled injured passengers and cabin crew, some with head bandages, into waiting ambulances.
The incident comes amidst growing scientific evidence that flight conditions are becoming rougher across heavily travelled global air corridors.
Rising Wind Shear and Clear Air Turbulence
New research from the University of Reading shows that instability-generating wind shear in the jet stream, which circles the Earth at approximately 30,000 feet, has soared by 15 per cent since 1979. This increase has resulted in stronger atmospheric turbulence for commercial aircraft and their passengers.
The study also revealed that severe clear-air turbulence (CAT) on busy flight routes has risen by 55 per cent over the same period. Clear-air turbulence is considered particularly dangerous because it occurs without cloud cover or storm activity, making it invisible to weather radar and pilots.
Anton Rachenko, an aviation expert and founder of AirAdvisor, explained that clear-air turbulence represents the primary concern for flight crews. "There is good evidence that clear-air turbulence is becoming more common in some heavily travelled parts of the world, and that is the type pilots worry about because there may be no obvious storm ahead to warn you it is coming," Rachenko said. "We are also flying through a changing atmosphere, and bigger differences in wind speed around the jet stream can create more of the conditions that produce it."
However, Rachenko noted that passengers should not assume every flight will encounter frightening turbulence, as airlines are improving real-time communication between aircraft. "Aircraft can now share information about what they have just encountered with flights following behind them, allowing pilots to change altitude or, just as importantly, get everybody seated before they reach it," Rachenko said. "We probably cannot eliminate turbulence, but turning something completely unexpected into something the crew gets five or ten minutes' warning about can make a very big difference."
Climate Change and El Nino Drivers
Former airline captain Emma Henderson, who now works as a professional public speaker, identified global warming as the leading cause of atmospheric instability. "Whether we like it or not, the main reason is climate change," Henderson told the Daily Mail. She explained that as the atmosphere warms, jet streams are strengthened in certain regions due to temperature differences between air masses.
"Stronger wind shear within and around the jet stream creates more clear-air turbulence, which is particularly challenging because it cannot be seen on weather radar," Henderson explained, noting that CAT is increasing most noticeably at cruising altitude. She added that an increase in UK thunderstorm activity also heightens turbulence risks, and climate models suggest CAT will become more frequent and intense across the North Atlantic and North America if global temperatures continue rising.
Atmospheric stability is also facing short-term pressure from natural climate patterns. Maya Shpak, chief executive of the AI-powered turbulence intelligence platform SkyPath, noted that forecasters track an 88 per cent chance of a strong or very strong El Niño event this year, with a peak expected between November 2026 and January 2027.
"In a strong El Niño season, there is a predicted 30 per cent increase in turbulence over the North Atlantic alone, with meaningful upticks also expected over North America, South America, Southeast Asia and Australia," Shpak said. "So, the season ahead isn't an isolated spike; it's an El Niño surge atop a baseline that's been climbing for decades. And this isn't just a ride-quality issue: turbulence is already the leading cause of non-fatal injury in commercial aviation, so even incremental increases add up for passengers and airlines alike."
Passenger Injuries and Airline Liability Rules
The Air India emergency follows several recent high-profile turbulence events across international commercial aviation. Delta Air Lines is facing legal action from a group of passengers after a severe turbulence incident on July 30, 2025, left 25 people injured.
Earlier this year, an easyJet pilot was forced to declare an emergency and return to the UK after encountering severe turbulence. In May, ten people were injured on a Cathay Pacific flight from Brisbane to Hong Kong when turbulence threw passengers and cabin crew into the ceiling. On another flight, Ryanair passengers travelling to Liverpool reported feeling they were going to die before their aircraft was forced to divert.
Regarding compensation, Rachenko explained that standard fixed delay compensation may not apply if turbulence forces a flight diversion or major delay due to weather conditions outside the airline's control, although airlines maintain a duty of care to assist passengers and transport them to their destination.
"If someone is actually injured during the turbulence, that is a different issue altogether," Rachenko stated. "An onboard injury can potentially fall under international airline liability rules, so I would always advise the passenger to report it to the crew, get medical attention and keep a record of what happened."
High Risk Routes and Geographic Factors
David Martin, managing director at aerospace tool supplier Heamar, explained that geographic features play a major role in flight stability. "Passengers, of course, cannot control the route an airline chooses, but geography can give you some clues," Martin told the Daily Mail. "Flights passing over or close to major mountain ranges can experience mountain-wave turbulence, while areas around thunderstorms and strong weather systems can also produce much rougher conditions."
Martin highlighted the North Atlantic as a region prone to significant turbulence, alongside mountainous terrain such as the Andes and the Himalayas. Tropical and subtropical zones in parts of South America and Asia also feature higher localized turbulence risks linked to thunderstorm activity.
Despite these patterns, Martin advised travellers against choosing destinations based solely on turbulence maps. "Commercial aircraft are designed and operated to deal with turbulence, and flight crews have access to far more detailed weather and aviation data than passengers do," Martin said. "If conditions are especially severe, routes can be adjusted, altitudes changed, or flights delayed."
Martin noted that while seasonal weather shifts affect jet streams and storms, no time of year is entirely turbulence-free. For nervous flyers, he recommended selecting a seat positioned directly over the wings, where aircraft motion is less noticeable, and keeping seatbelts fastened whenever seated.
Turbulence Apps and Anxiety Coping Methods
To prepare for flights, many passengers turn to mobile forecasting tools. Apps such as Turbli, established in 2020, and Flying Calmly use flight crew weather forecasts to inform travellers about route conditions, flight speed, and turbulence levels.
SkyPath operates directly for flight decks using pilot data, functioning similarly to navigation apps. "It works a bit like Waze. Waze doesn't stop traffic; it uses real-time data from thousands of drivers already on the road to reroute you around traffic forming right now," Shpak said. SkyPath fuses more than 9 billion crowdsourced data points annually, including flight-deck iPad accelerometers, aircraft telemetry, pilot weather reports, and AI forecasting, into a live global map covering conditions up to 24 hours ahead.
"The important distinction: SkyPath doesn't prevent turbulence. Nobody can stop the atmosphere from doing what it does," Shpak said. "What it does is give pilots and dispatchers enough advance notice to prepare for it and, where possible, route around it, whether that's turning the seatbelt sign on before the bumps start rather than after, or recommending an altitude change to find smoother air."
However, Martin cautioned that apps should serve only as general guidance. "They should not be treated as a crystal ball," Martin said. "Turbulence can be highly localised, conditions can change during a flight, and forecasts are not precise enough to guarantee that a particular aircraft will experience a smooth or bumpy journey." Industry experts also note that monitoring forecasting apps can increase anxiety for some travellers.
According to data from Phobia Aero, flight anxiety affects between 25 and 30 per cent of adults worldwide, making it one of the most common phobias. Although turbulence has never caused a modern commercial aircraft to crash, it remains the leading reported trigger for flight fear.
Aviation health experts recommend several specific techniques to calm pre-flight nerves. Nervous flyers can use the jelly method, visualizing the plane moving through air at 30,000 feet as if passing through dense jelly rather than water. Passengers can also lift their legs off the cabin floor during takeoff to reduce vibration sensations, practice slow breathing by inhaling and exhaling for five to seven seconds to lower heart rate, or speak directly to cabin crew members who are trained to support anxious passengers.
